Donwald Pressly
The government has cocked a snook at opposition demands for the cancellation of the second tranche of the arms deal, which will see the delivery of a further dozen British Aerospace Hawk trainers at a cost of R3-billion.
The third tranche, which needs a final nod in two years’ time, will see 19 Gripen fighter aircraft supplied by BAE/Saab added to an original order of nine. At current exchange rates, these will cost a further R11,4-billion.
Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon has argued that the money earmarked for both tranches could have doubled the number of police officers in South Africa; provided 4,5-million destitute people with a basic-income grant of R100 a month for a year; provided medical treatment for every child raped in South Africa since 1994; saved the lives of more than 53000 babies born to HIV-positive mothers; and provided housing subsidies for 337500 homeless families.
DA finance spokesperson Raenette Taljaard said: “One can only hope sanity will prevail, and that the government will try with the means at its disposal to curtail the costs of the arms deal. Clearly the second and third tranches represent such an opportunity.”
The People’s Budget formulated by the Congress of South African Trade Unions, the South African National NGO Coalition and the South African Council of Churches, has also proposed dropping the second and third tranches of the package.
Ministry of Defence spokesperson Sam Bheki Mkhwanazi confirmed that the government would be making an announcement next week to the South African National Editors’ Forum on the ins and outs of the defence contract as it affects the second and third tranches of the arms package.
The deadline for the withdrawal of the second tranche was the end of March, and for the third tranche March 2004.
Government sources indicate that there was never any doubt that the commitment to “the full military Monty” would be upheld.
In his State of the Nation speech in February, President Thabo Mbeki said: “In order to ensure that we stay true to our commitment to peace on the continent and other defence functions, we shall continue with the programme to equip our National Defence Force in line with policies of the country adopted by its elected representatives.”
Helmoed Romer-Heitman, Jane’s Defence Weekly Southern African correspondent, disagreed this week with opposition demands that the second and third tranches be scrap-ped. He argued that having just nine Gripens “would amount to military masturbation”. Cancellation would mean “a stupid force design with infrastructure and technical support for a middling fighter squadron but hardly any aircraft”.
Romer-Heitman said the 12 Hawks and nine Gripens in the first tranche, scheduled to arrive from 2003 and 2007 respectively, would be “very thin”, especially if some of them were in repair.
As many would have to be in upgrade, only 16 of the 28 Gripens were likely to be in full service at one time.
He said: “The bottom line of not keeping the defence force fully equipped is simply body bags … if we land in a conflict situation.” South Africa has some 35 Cheetahs that will be retired as the Gripens arrive. The last Cheetah will be decommissioned in 2012, with the first Gripens from the first tranche arriving from 2007 and the second tranche from 2009.
The Treasury has said loan facili- ties of 390,2-million (R6,2-billion) were for the 24 Hawk trainer aircraft, and 305,2-million (R4,8-billion), $461,6-million (R5,1-billion) and 6,43-billion Swedish kroner (R6,8-billion) for the 28 fighter aircraft.
The total cost of the arms deal which includes four corvettes, three submarines and 30 light utility helicopters was R30,3-billion at 1999 prices. This was raised in the recent budget to R52,7-billion, with annual payments reaching a peak of R7,7-billion in 2005/6.
Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel said increases in the defence vote will provide for the higher costs of the arms deal “to revised exchange rate projections”. The 12-year arms programme cost R2,6-billion in 2000/01 and R4,04-billion in 2001/2. Annual commitments are projected at R6,3-billion in 2002/3, R7,1-billion in 2003/04 and R7,1-billion in 2004/5.
They will drop back to R5,9-billion in 2006/7, R4,49-billion in 2007/8, R3,5-billion in 2008/9, R1,3-billion in 2009/10, R1,18-billion in 2010 and R1,16-billion in 2011/2.
Romer-Heitman said the Department of Trade and Industry figures indicated that 45% of the national industrial participation programme was “in the bag”.
“Not all the money is in, but more than $6-billion worth of contracts have been signed. This involves such things as automotive parts, mineral beneficiation, solar manufacturing, silicon smelters for microchips and bins for medical waste.”