/ 8 April 2002

Asteroid could collide with Earth in 2880

Washington | Friday

THE asteroid 1950 DA, measuring some 1.1 kilometres in diameter, could collide with Earth on March 16, 2880, a team of international researchers concluded in Friday’s issue of the journal Science.

Within a period of about 20 minutes on that day, there will be a one in 300 (0.33 percent) chance of collision, according to the research team, led by Jon Giorgini of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Though the probability of that happening may seem practically infinitesimal, it is about three times greater than the risk of any other asteroid collision, Giorgini said.

First observed on February 23, 1950, the 1950 DA asteroid disappeared from sight after 17 days and reappeared for the first time on New Year’s Eve 2000.

Using doppler radar in March 2001, researchers measured the orbit of the asteroid, at a distance 20.3 times greater than the distance between the Earth and the Moon and discovered its slightly asymmetrical spheroid shape.

Astronomers caution that the path of the asteroid, which will pass close to Earth in 2032, could still change, because the physical properties of the asteroid’s surface are unknown.

The physical properties affect how an asteroid reflects light, which can, in turn, have a significant influence on its orbit. – Sapa-AFP