ROBERT HOLLOWAY, United Nations | Friday
UN military observers have estimated total Rwandan rebel strength in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) at between 10 000 and 12 000, significantly less than Rwandan government figures.
In a report to the Security Council, the observers said the rebels –former soldiers and militiamen who fled Rwanda after the 1994 genocide –were split into two groups of roughly equal size.
The report, ordered by the council on February 25 and based on an assessment by the UN observer mission (known by its French acronym The rebel presence is Rwanda’s main quarrel with the DRC government and its excuse for keeping troops on its neighbour’s soil in defiance of a July 1999 ceasefire agreement aimed at ending the most complex war in Africa.
Uganda also has some troops in the DRC, but the report said only one of the six Ugandan rebel groups originally in the country was still there, and the total number of its fighters had dwindled to between 200 and 300.
Three other countries — Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe — sent troops to support the DRC government, but have withdrawn, in part or completely.
”It is customary to describe the Rwandan armed groups as structured organisations with traditional military appellations, such as divisions, brigades, battalions and companies,” the UN observers said.
But ”Monuc is not convinced that (they) conform to a traditional military structure or that they necessarily operate under coherent command and control,” the report added.
The observers said the former Rwandan armed forces (FAR) and the Interahamwe militia were now collectively known as the Rwandan Liberation Army (ALIR), which had split into two groups, ALIR-1 and ALIR-2.
They estimated that each of these had between 4 000 and 6 000 fighters, but they cautioned that ”establishing precise and reliable figures has proved particularly difficult”.
According to the report, the Rwandan army has estimated the strength of ALI-1 at between 13,000 and 15,000 fighters. Nevertheless, the report said, Patrick Mazimhaka, a special envoy of Rwandan President Paul Kagame, ”agreed with Monuc’s estimates” when he met on March 28 with Monuc’s head, Amos Namanga Ngongi in the Rwandan capital, Kigali.
The report said that ”ALIR-1 fighters are currently considered to suffer from low morale following their failed attempt to invade Rwanda in May 2001.”
The group, comprising mostly men who fled Rwanda after participating in the 1994 genocide, was ”isolated and living in harsh conditions.”
By contrast, ”ALIR-2 is said to be larger and better equipped than ALIR-2” although less experienced. ”Its members are thought to be younger and not to have participated in the 1994 genocide.”
ALIR-2 was thought to have at least one division with three brigades in South Kivu and Katanga provinces, the report said, but ”the existence of a second division remains unconfirmed.”
”The armed groups are dynamic entities,” it said. ”Alliances within and between groups are constantly shifting and are often linked to short-term goals or individual operations.” This was also true of the Mayi-Mayi tribesmen in the eastern Kivu provinces, who have the largest number of fighters but — because they are ”a distinctly Congolese phenomenon” — fall outside the terms of the 1999 ceasefire accord.
”There is no apparent pattern in Mayi-Mayi alliances with outside groups,” the report said.
But, it went on, the two main groups, led by generals Padiri and Dunia, ”are well structured and generally recognised by other Mayi-Mayi groups as the overall leaders of the groups in the region.
Padiri has an estimated 6 000 fighters and Dunia between 4 000 and 5 000. – Sapa-AFP