The peace deal signed this week between the presidents of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda gives hope of an end to Africa’s biggest war, but implementation of the agreement faces profound obstacles.
The deal was brokered by Deputy President Jacob Zuma, who has called it “a great step forward to the African renaissance”.
The involvement in the war of non-signatory rebel groups and the troops of a number of countries that did not sign the agreement will make it extremely difficult for the parties to the peace deal to meet their commitments within the tight time frame they have set themselves.
The war has left Congo in ruins, its people caught in an economic and humanitarian catastrophe. More than two million have died since the start of the war.
Speaking at the signing of the peace deal in Pretoria this week, President Joseph Kabila of Congo and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda said they were optimistic that the pact could bring peace to the Great Lakes region.
President Thabo Mbeki, who signed the deal in his capacity as African Union chairperson, said it signalled a “bright day for Africa”. But he conceded that the deal was not the final hurdle on the road to a lasting settlement in the Great Lakes region.
“There will be problems and reversals, but we are convinced of the firm commitment of both parties [Congo and Rwanda],” Mbeki said.
The challenge will be to make the peace deal work on the ground. The deal sets a brisk timetable of three months to identify and disarm Rwandan Hutu rebels inside Congo, who could number as many as 100 000, and to withdraw between 20 000 and 30 000 Rwandan troops from the country.
The troops have been in Congo for four years fighting the Hutu rebels and supporting Congolese rebels against the government of President Joseph Kabila in Kinshasa.
The peace deal aims to end the conflict by removing from Congo the Rwandan Hutus, the group the Rwandans say is the reason for their intervention. The Hutu rebels were responsible for much of the anti-Tutsi genocide in Rwanda in 1994. In turn, the Rwandan government has agreed to halt its support for anti-Kinshasa rebel forces.
Congo and Rwanda, backed by the United Nations and South Africa, have committed themselves to ensure the success of the deal.
Kagame said his country was ready to fulfil the agreement, and Kabila said his government would not do anything that would jeopardise the peace deal.
“Everything has a beginning and an end,” Kabila said. “There is time for war and there is time for peace. [The agreement] reflects [that] the people of Africa want peace … and [Congo] must play its full role to attain peace and stability.
“If there is a failure of this agreement it will not be as a result of the [Congo] government.”
He said he believed that the rebels would not be able to ruin the peace effort because they had been alienated from the two main players in the region. But it appears the rebels are not yet prepared to give up.
After the Pretoria agreement was signed the Hutu rebels in Congo reportedly said that they would defy the deal and resist attempts to return them to Rwanda, where they could face trial for genocide.
Analysts at the ceremony said this week that the rebels’ threat was an obstacle to the peace deal. But they noted that the withdrawal of Rwandan troops would reduce the rebels’ justification for resisting disarmament.
The two main Congolese rebel groups are the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) and the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC).
The Ugandan-backed MLC was set up to fight the government of the late Laurent Kabila. In April it reached an agreement with Joseph Kabila’s government at the Inter-Congolese Dialogue at Sun City. Its leader, Jean-Pierre Bemba, was supposed to become prime minister but he has not yet taken up the post.
The originally Rwandan-backed RCD, which was not present at Sun City, has split into factions. It controls areas of eastern and south-eastern Congo.
The UN observer force in the Congo (Monuc) has estimated there are 12 000 Rwandan Hutu rebels in the country, although other sources suggest the figure may be far higher. Rwanda accuses them of plotting
to overthrow the Tutsi-dominated government in Rwanda.
Only 21 rebels have surrendered to Monuc so far and given up their arms. The Congo army must now find the rest and hand them over to Rwanda.
The Pretoria deal allows only 90 days to find and disarm the Hutu rebels. But Mbeki said this week that the deadline was flexible.