President Thabo Mbeki’s credibility as an African leader has taken a knock because of his decision once again to sit on his hands despite increasing evidence of state terrorism in Zimbabwe.
Mbeki joined Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo this week in blocking an attempt by Australian Prime Minister John Howard to increase Commonwealth sanctions against President Robert Mugabe’s government. The move, which inspired yet another provocative and triumphal outburst from Mugabe’s state-controlled media, has also put a question mark over the effectiveness of the 54-nation Commonwealth.
Mbeki, Howard and Obasanjo were mandated by the organisation to formulate a response to the presidential election stolen by Mugabe in March. The troika suspended Zimbabwe from the political councils of the Commonwealth and tried to facilitate a dialogue between Mugabe and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
Mugabe has taken a defiant line, shunning the MDC and refusing even to receive Commonwealth Secretary General Don McKinnon.
He snubbed the troika meeting in Abuja this week, saying the invitation he received sounded like he was being summonsed to a court martial.
Howard flew to Nigeria intending to have Zimbabwe fully suspended from the Commonwealth.
He was blocked by Mbeki and Obasanjo, who said Mugabe should be given a further six months before further sanctions were considered.
Zimbabwe’s immediate expulsion ”would have been better for the Commonwealth’s credibility”, Howard said later. ”We should move immediately to fully suspend Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth because of the failure of Zimbabwe to show any sensitivity at all to Commonwealth opinion. I’m concerned, if we just remain mute and indifferent, that democratic governance, which is a central Commonwealth value, will just go by the board.”
The communique issued after the meeting limited itself to expressions of regret and disappointment at Mugabe’s non-appearance and the failure of the reconciliation process. It did not mention the MDC by name.
”We’re obviously disappointed because Mugabe has once again been given a walk,” said a Western diplomat at the talks.
”There are only two leaders who can have any impact on Mugabe: Mbeki and Libya’s Moammar Gadaffi. We look to Mbeki to take effective action because there is no immediate prospect of Gadaffi using his oil weapon against Mugabe. Mbeki can no longer hide behind the fact that he is keeping open the lines of communication to Mugabe. What good are these lines if they only serve to tell Mugabe to keep on keeping on with his anti-democratic activities?”
Commonwealth sources say Mugabe is emboldened by what he sees as demonstrations of support from fellow Africans. Two weeks before Mbeki and Obasanjo saved him from punitive action by the Commonwealth, African delegates at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg cheered Mugabe when he rounded on Blair.
”The cheers are not backed by any substantial endorsement of Mugabe,” said a diplomat. ”Namibia’s Sam Nujoma is the only Commonwealth leader openly to express any support for Mugabe’s actions. Nevertheless, Mugabe appears to believe his propagandists claims that he has become the new iron man of Africa.”