Neither the Democratic Alliance nor the New National Party can convincingly claim a victory after the three-week municipal defection period. The real winner is the African National Congress.
According to the Independent Electoral Commission’s (IEC) final tally, 128 new councillors joined the ANC — 51 from the DA, 16 from the United Democratic Movement, 10 from the Pan Africanist Congress, seven from the Inkatha Freedom Party and six independents. The ANC lost 16 councillors: seven to the IFP, five to the UDM and three to the DA.
Following a “gentlemen’s agreement” the ANC and NNP did not poach from each other.
NNP help for its senior partner enabled the ANC to tip the balance and wrest control in formerly DA councils in Kouga and Willowmore in the Eastern Cape, all five Northern Cape councils and most of the Western Cape municipalities. The DA still controls 10 Western Cape councils, including Mossel Bay, George and Knysna, Midvaal (Meyerton) and Nokeng Tsa-Tamane (Cullinan).
Several hung councils run by a DA-IFP alliance, like Port Shepstone in KwaZulu-Natal, fell to the ANC-NNP.
A total of 555 councillors across the country defected, the IEC said. The DA felt “the major impact” with the loss of 417 councillors
A total of 340 returned from the DA to the NNP. However, disguised in this figure is the fact that 273 councillors nominated by the NNP for the 2000 municipal elections decided to remain in Tony Leon’s party.
In other words, about 44% of DA municipal representatives with Nat roots decided not to return to their party of origin. This has to be seen as a setback for Marthinus van Schalkwyk.
The NNP now represents the largest non-ANC party in Mangaung (Bloemfontein), with 10 members against the DA’s eight, as well as recouping all 22 of its nominated councillors in Mpuma-langa and luring a further nine.
Defections to it in councils such as Thohoyandou (4), Modimolle (Nylstroom) (4) and Molemole (2) in Lim-popo and Mantsopa (Ladybrand) (4) in the Free State wiped out the DA component.
However, a good return rate in Gauteng, where the NNP clawed back four-fifths of the councillors it nominated, has to be set against its actual representation. It has 40 councillors compared to the 248-strong DA.
Ten Gauteng DA members also left for the ANC, which gained a total of 19 new councillors in the province.
In the Johannesburg metropole seven of the 10 original NNP members returned to the party fold, joined by one Democratic Party nominee and one independent.
In Tshwane, five of the 12 NNP-nominated councillors returned. In eKurhuleni (East Rand) six of the eight NNP-nominated councillors were joined by one DP nominee and a black independent.
In the Free State, approximately 30 of the 45 original NNP-nominated members of the 116-strong DA component returned to the NNP. A handful of independents and members of small provincial parties brought the final NNP tally to 33.
A gain for the DA is the fact that it now has 62 councillors in the Northern Cape, where the DP historically had a tiny presence.
In the Western Cape fewer than half the original 285 NNP nominees among the 356 DA councillors crossed the floor. However, the 107 who did return exacted a disproportionate toll in marginal DA councils, including Cape Town, the biggest rural municipality of Drakenstein (Paarl), Overberg (Hermanus) and Stellenbosch.
The war of words between the DA and NNP continued well after the end of the defection window at midnight on Tuesday — each claiming victory and the extinction of the other.