The drums of war beat on. Led by the political leadership of the United States, they get louder day by day. And the recent terrorist attacks in Bali and the Philippines have simply lent further ammunition to the warmongers. Every day the Security Council of the United Nations gets closer to approving a resolution that will legitimise a US strike on Iraq.
For those of us who think this is not our concern, think again. The war, when it happens, will fundamentally affect us, not only in the price of oil and the inflation and economic hardship it will unleash, but because it will fashion a world order where it will be difficult for us to make our own decisions.
But what can we do? Before anything we need to understand the lay of the land. And for that we need to come to terms with three issues. First, Saddam Hussein is a thug. He is an autocrat who holds his people in bondage. The sooner we rid them of his rule, the better Iraq and the world will be. Moreover, he is not our friend, and we should not pretend that he is. Neither should narrow business interests govern our relations with him. The fact that Eskom is in the running for a huge electricity contract should not unduly influence our position with regard to Iraq. After all, Eskom is only one company and this country’s national interest is determined by much bigger issues than a single contract with a parastatal.
Second, the war will not produce a democracy in Iraq. If democracy were to prevail, the Shiite majority in Iraq may just come to power. And if that were to happen, Iran would be strengthened. The US will not let this happen. Neither will it be allowed by those corrupt sheiks and monarchs who masquerade as representatives of the people of the Middle East. For a democracy in Iraq may just ignite a democratic revolution across the region that would threaten their political rule and their monopolisation of their nation’s natural resources.
Third, the US is becoming a danger to the world. In a bipolar world, the US and the former Soviet Union tended to constrain each other. In a unipolar world, however, only the US populace could constrain its government. And, increasingly since September 11, its citizenry have lost the will to do so. Now the responsibility has fallen on other nations. The four other veto power nations in the Security Council are incapable of holding the US in check. They’re too busy trying to divide the spoils of war among themselves. France after all is only holding out for guarantees that will ensure the contracts of her conglomerates will be honoured.
The developing world thus has to take the responsibility of checking the US herself. And South Africa must play a role in this regard. Already South Africa has made its voice heard on the matter. Nelson Mandela’s strident remarks opposing the war got worldwide coverage. If the African National Congress was behind it, then it was a clever move on the part of the president. Moreover, it has dispatched diplomats to consult with France and Russia. But this is not going to help. As indicated earlier, France and Russia seem more interested in short-term economic gain. South Africa thus has to look for other partners.
If we are to engage on this issue, we need more leverage. And the only way we’re going to get that is if we act as part of a bloc of nations. Perhaps with the victory of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as president, Brazil may be a serious candidate. So may be other African countries. If not, then we have to ask ourselves what our foreign affairs officials have been doing for the past few years.
In any case, organising a bloc of nations that can articulate an independent, non-aligned voice is essential. But it is also important for this bloc of nations to develop leverage it’s willing to use. For ultimately, it will only be listened to if it can demonstrate power and a political will to act.
The political stakes are high. If an independent voice and strategy from a bloc of nations in the developing world does not emerge, a war in Iraq will not be the last. There will be more wars as Bush has so often intimated. But more importantly, this war will reinforce US hegemony, which will come to haunt us in the future in more subtle ways.
Already the policy frameworks dominant in international forums and institutions constrain our capacity to address the goals of our transition. A reinforcement of US hegemony will deepen these frameworks and aggravate the situation.
It is in the national interests of South Africa and other developing nations to get involved and to develop a strategy that constrains US aggression and prevents war in Iraq.
Adam Habib is the director of the University of Natal’s Centre for Civil Society