When Robert Mugabe boarded a plane for an extended holiday in Thailand a fortnight ago it probably did not occur to him that by the time he returned his hold on power would be in question. He seemed so firmly entrenched as president of Zimbabwe that neither elections nor a popular uprising could unseat him.
Now his rule has been questioned from inside his own party and he may never be thoroughly secure again.
Although Mugabe has repressed domestic opposition and outmanoeuvred the international forces for change, he has apparently underestimated the threat from his own inner circle. The reports that two of his most trusted deputies, the parliamentary Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa and the army chief of staff General Vitalis Zvinavashe, have said they can get him to step down, have forced him to contemplate life after power.
It cannot be very comfortable for Mugabe, but the rest of Zimbabwe is reacting with glee to the prospect of change.
”Well, well, this is exciting,’’ said John Makumbe, a lecturer in political science at the University of Zimbabwe. ”Now that Mugabe has been challenged from inside his own party, he will not be able to shake the image that he is vulnerable. This should make this year very interesting. There is some movement towards change.’’
It is noteworthy that the noises have come from two senior members of Zanu-PF.
”Zanu-PF is at wit’s end to find a solution to our crisis, but they cannot find a solution with Mugabe in control,’’ Makumbe said. ”Even his own party is recognising Mugabe as a liability.’’
This pressure is not only from politicians but from the armed forces, which carried Mugabe to power in 1980.
Mnangagwa is a former guerrilla fighter and defence minister, who has maintained close ties with the military establishment. He and Zvinavashe came to the realisation that the rank and file, as well as many in the officer class, were no longer loyal to Mugabe.
The reason is easy to understand. Even the cosseted troops have families in Zimbabwe. They are feeling the inflation of 175%, they cannot get basic foodstuffs for their families, they know rural relations are going hungry. They know something is rotten at the top.
Mugabe’s management of the economy has enriched a handful of cronies, but it has caused the gross domestic product to shrink by 25% in the past three years.
The living standard of previously comfortable Zimbabweans has dropped accordingly. The economic conditions that gave rise to the Movement for Democratic Change have now caused the military to question Mugabe’s leadership.
Mugabe, now 78 years old and in power for 23 years, has never named a successor, preferring to keep everyone guessing, inside and outside his party. But this may prove to be part of his undoing, because ambitious men in Zanu-PF do not want to leave the succession to chance.
They see that if Mugabe presides over the drastic economic decline for much longer, popular revulsion will prevent anyone in Zanu-PF succeeding Mugabe. Therefore they feel they must act now to secure their own hold on power.
There is considerable debate on whether Mugabe approved of these preliminary negotiations for his retirement. Some suggest that he is weary of power and would like to step down. But much more weight is given to the possibility that Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe went behind his back.
Either way points to an end to Mugabe’s time in office. If he knew and approved of the talks, then he accepts that it is time for him to step down. If he did not know, then he has serious trouble that may bring about his downfall.
The challengers are not men committed to democracy. They are driven by a lust for power. ”They want to return the country to some sort of normalcy so that they and Zanu-PF can have another 20 years in power,’’ Makumbe said. ”It has nothing to do with democracy and nothing to do with a change in the regime. They want to secure continued power.’’
It seems that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai recognised this and that is why he publicised the secret talks. Although the initial talks collapsed, it seems certain that more talks will follow. That is assured by the long and restive queues for bread, maize-meal, fuel, cooking oil and the many other basic items Zimbabweans used to take for granted. The scores of thousands in the queues no longer have any confidence in Mugabe’s rule.
The tentative negotiations are a sign that even senior members of Zanu-PF would rather be with those in the queues than with the president. — Â