/ 25 February 2003

SA economy grew by three percent last year

The South African economy grew by three percent last year, compared to a 2,8%expansion recorded in 2001, Statistics SA reported on Tuesday.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the seasonally adjusted real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 2,4% compared with the previous quarter.

The corresponding real annualised economic growth rates for the first three quarters of last year were 3, 3,8, and 2,9% respectively. Stats SA said contributors to increased economic activity last year included manufacturing, finance, real estate, and business services.

Other sectors that played a role were transport and communication, and wholesale and retail trade, and hotels and restaurants.

The GDP of the final quarter of last year was mainly due to increases in the real value added by sectors such transport and communication, wholesale and retail trade, and hotels and restaurants.

Absa economist John Loos said the lower growth rate in the fourth quarter was mostly a reflection of the rise in interest rates last year.

He described the overall performance of the economy in the past year as impressive in view of difficult global economic conditions.

”The weak rand was a major contributor as it provided local manufacturers some protection against international competitors.”

Loos predicted a growth rate of about 2,1% for the whole of this year because of an ongoing weakness in the global economy.

”Growth will be the slowest in the current quarter. We should see the momentum picking up slowly as interest rates start declining. Real interest rates would, however, remain high,” he said.

Standard Bank economist Pallie Botha said South Africans had reason to feel satisfied about last year’s growth rate.

”Three percent is not to be spurned, especially in the view of international economic conditions. We really have nothing to complain about.”

In present conditions, an overall growth rate of 2,8% for the current year was not totally out of reach, Botha said.

”We will see two slow quarters, but things should start happening again by mid-year as interest rates begin falling.”

The situation in Iraq remained an unknown factor. Much depended on the outcome of the current international tension in that region, Botha said. – Sapa