Tony Blair yesterday took the political gamble of his life when he signalled that British forces will join an imminent US-led military invasion to disarm Saddam Hussein, even if a majority of the security council fails to endorse such action in a second UN resolution.
The prime minister moved to end the sense of deep crisis that engulfed Downing Street over the previous 48 hours, quelling doubts about his resolve to fight alongside the US.
He stressed that there was sufficient justification for war in UN resolution 1441, passed last November. While the immediate battle to secure a fresh resolution would continue, there would be no turning back.
The prime minister told the Commons: ”We hold firm to the course we have set out.”
After what appeared a day of frayed nerves inside Downing Street on Tuesday, and increasing diplomatic division between London and Washington, Blair made his decision to fight, even though it could prompt a wave of resignations from his government.
He told MPs: ”The reason why I believe it is important that we hold firm … is because what is at stake here isn’t whether the US goes alone or not. It is whether the international community is prepared to back up the clear instruction it gave to Saddam Hussein with the necessary action.”
With the French almost certain to veto any second resolution, Downing Street said Britain remained focused on winning over five of the six swing states on the security council. If they vote for the British resolution, Blair would have the political protection of claiming the backing of a majority of security council states.
In a bid to win over the waverers, Britain proposed six tests by which the UN could judge whether President Saddam is complying with the UN’s demand that he disarm. One of the tests requires him to give a televised confession that he has stocks of illegal weapons.
Failure to win the wavering security council votes will leave Downing Street endorsing a war without solid Labour or public backing.
If the resolution falls, the US could invade Iraq as early as next week after allowing the UN inspectors and any journalists to leave Baghdad. If the resolution was to go through, the war option would be delayed a little longer to allow President Saddam time to comply with the six tests.
The US state department was last night claiming to be confident that it had secured four of the six wavering votes. The plan is to table the new resolution the minute it wins over a fifth swing vote that would give the required majority of nine. That could mean a vote as early as today or any time up to Sunday.
But the British government played down the chances of success. The Foreign Office was gloomy, insisting that it had failed to win over any of the waverers.
The Spanish government, joint sponsors with the US and Britain of the resolution, went further by suggesting it might be preferable not to hold the vote at all.
Mr Blair and the US president, George Bush, telephoned leaders of the waverers last night to try to swing their votes. Bush spoke with the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, and the leaders of Mexico, Chile and Pakistan.
The British government, in response to pressure from the waverers, offered Iraq disarmament tests. These included:
President Saddam admitting in Arabic he had had weapons of mass destruction but would get rid of them or explain what happened to them;
Iraq’s permission for 30 weapons scientists to travel to Cyprus to be interviewed by UN weapons inspectors;
the destruction forthwith of 10 000 litres of anthrax and other chemical and biological weapons Iraq is suspected of holding.
Iraqi sources indicated that five of the six tests might be acceptable but the television address was problematic. There could be a way round this if the address was limited to President Saddam giving a commitment to disarmament, without any suggestion that he had been lying.
The tests could store up new problems for the US and Britain should President Saddam go some way to meeting them and further sowing division in the UN.
The White House tried to undo the mess caused by the remarks of the US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, that the US was prepared to go to war without Britain.
The White House representative, Ari Fleischer, went out of his way to praise Blair, saying: ”The president values the counsel of prime minister Blair, and this remains a diplomatic issue that the president is discussing with the United Kingdom as well as other nations.” – Guardian Unlimited Â