British Prime Minister Tony Blair held an emergency ”war Cabinet” meeting yesterday to finalise plans for military action against Iraq and demand that the United Nations comes to a decision on the vital second resolution against Saddam Hussein within 24 hours.
As Number 10 made clear that the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Security Council were now ”bleak” and American bombers for the first time struck at targets in Iraq, the UN was given until Monday evening to come to a final choice on whether to back a second resolution or see America and Britain launch military action alone.
If it is clear Britain and the US cannot get the necessary nine votes to pass the resolution in the council, they will dump plans to put it to a vote and announce that Saddam is in ”material breach” of UN resolution 1441 passed last November.
That will be seen on both sides of the Atlantic as a trigger for war, which Ministry of Defence sources said would happen ”in short order”. It is expected that an air bombing campaign, followed by a massive ground offensive, would start within a few days.
It followed the disclosure by America yesterday that two US Air Force B-1 bombers knocked out truck-mounted anti-aircraft radar systems designed to alert Iraq to attack by British and US forces — a signal that war was imminent.
As tensions in the region heightened hour-by-hour, it emerged that Blair is also planning to hold an emergency meeting of the full Cabinet this week and announce a vote in the House of Commons, probably on Tuesday, if the UN route has been exhausted by tomorrow night.
In a high-wire act, the Prime Minister will hope that with British troops about to go into conflict, the rebellion will be smaller than the 121 MPs who voted against the British government last month.
Downing Street is braced for the resignation of Robin Cook, Leader of the House of Commons, by Tuesday night if the second resolution fails but officials said they hoped to keep Clare Short, the International Development Secretary, in the Cabinet.
In the next 48 hours, in one of the last moves before military action is announced, the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, will say Britain is within its legal rights to launch an attack without a second resolution.
The government’s chief law officer will say 1441 warns of ”serious consequences” if Saddam does not comply fully with UN resolutions. Earlier UN resolutions passed at the end of the Gulf war in 1991, which say that nations can use ”all necessary means” to disarm Saddam, back Britain’s legal position.
Goldsmith, whose legal advice to the government advice is usually private, has told colleagues he feels he must speak out after reports that Britain had a weak legal case for an invasion.
”He’s found all the reports that he’s telling the Prime Minister that this might be illegal highly irritating,” said a senior Number 10 figure.
Blair and President Bush meet in the Azores today to finalise military plans and make a last assessment of the chances of squeezing a vote through the UN. France has said it will veto any resolution that automatically triggers war. Increasingly angry British government officials said France was acting in an ”arrogant manner ” that was ”an affront to multilateralism ”. France countered that it was seeking a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Yesterday, Bush made clear that war was now almost inevitable.
”There is little reason to hope that Saddam Hussein will disarm, ” the President said in his weekly radio address. ”If force is required to disarm him, the American people can know that our armed forces have been given every tool and every resource to achieve victory. ”
Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, agreed that military action was now likely. ”The prospect of military action is now much more probable and I greatly regret that, ” he said.
However, throwing a spanner in the already convoluted works, the Iraqi government yesterday invited the leader of the weapons inspectorate Hans Blix and his colleague on the International Atomic Energy Authority, Mohammed El Baradei, to visit Baghdad.
The invitation, said officials at the United Nations in New York, where the invitation was delivered, asked for their presence to help ”accelerate the inspections process”.
In a signal that Blair is moving into ”high gear ” as military action approaches, the Prime Minister called an emergency meeting of his closest aides and colleagues.
The Prime Minister’s official representative said: ”We need to take stock and realise things are difficult. But in the end you reach a point of decision. We are at that stage.”
A poll of half of all backbench Labour MPs for today’s BBC TV’s Politics Show suggests the rebellion could be even larger than last time if Blair seeks support for war without a second resolution.
Only 17 of the 129 MPs, asked if they would support military action against Iraq without a second resolution said that they would, and 95 said that they would not. – Guardian Unlimited Â