/ 17 March 2003

Iraq: the final 24 hours

George Bush and Tony Blair last night gave the United Nations a 24-hour ultimatum to enforce its own demands for immediate Iraqi disarmament, or face an American- and British-led coalition that will go to war within days.

What Bush called the ”moment of truth” for the international community, and Blair called ”the point of decision” after 12 years of game-playing by Saddam Hussein, means that last-minute diplomacy to win a fresh UN mandate will end tonight, whether or not the security council bends to US pressure.

The long-threatened war could start almost immediately. But neither White House nor Downing Street officials would give any hint of their timetable as Blair’s last, desperate diplomatic fling appeared to crumble at the Azores summit with his UN allies, the US and Spain.

After just 90 minutes of talks at a military base in the mid-Atlantic, the president and prime minister, together with their Spanish and Portuguese counterparts, emerged with a stark message both for Baghdad and for their own allies in Nato, the UN and the EU. Bush gave a powerful illustration that his patience had all but worn away when he said: ”Tomorrow is a moment of truth for the world. Tomorrow is the day that we can determine whether or not diplomacy will work.”

Blair was less blunt, but he made it clear that action would have to be taken to disarm President Saddam if the UN refused to enforce its will: ”We are in the final stages, because after 12 years of failing to disarm him, now is the time when we have to decide.”

The two leaders, who flew home last night, pledged to embark on a final round of telephone diplomacy to avoid war. But neither held out much hope.

Bush made it clear he had all but given up any hope of a diplomatic deal when he launched an extraordinary attack on France for pledging to veto any fresh resolution which would act as a trigger to war.

”I was the guy who said we should vote [at the UN] and one country showed their card — it’s an old Texas expression when you’re playing poker,” he said. ”We will just have to take an assessment after tomorrow to determine what that card meant.”

Blair said there would be a final round of crisis talks to try to win round France and Russia, which have been the most vocal opponents of war among the permanent members of the security council.

”Now we have reached the point of decision and we make a final appeal for there to be that strong, unified message on behalf of the international community that lays down a clear ultimatum to Saddam that authorises force if he continues to defy the will of the whole of the international community set out in 1441.”

But Blair made clear he saw little hope of a deal. President Saddam’s game playing, he declared, had ensured that ”disarmament never happens”, while the world ”is drawn into some perpetual negotiation”.

With his voice sometimes breaking, last night’s summit marked the lowest point of Mr Blair’s premiership as he fights the threat of revolt and resignation within his own party. But he coupled his warnings with conciliatory messages to critics – messages Bush endorsed, albeit less emphatically.

The two leaders stressed that:

  • The territorial integrity of Iraq will not be at risk if there is a war and that political institutions which respect minorities will be introduced;

  • Iraq’s natural resources, notably oil, will be administered in the interests of its people, making it in Bush’s words potentially a ”great nation”;

  • The Middle East peace plan will be advanced through a combination of the US ”road map” for Palestinian statehood and the appointment of a moderate, Mahmoud Abbas, as prime minister — the right combination, Blair said;

  • The international community, through the UN, will be involved in both humanitarian and wider reconstruction.

    The UN role in a postwar Iraq was endorsed by Bush, which will go some way to answering concerns of critics such as the international development secretary, Clare Short.

    Hans Blix, the UN chief weapons inspector, said the messages from the Azores sounded threatening, but if the US was girding for war: ”I think we would expect to have some other messages from the US side if they were to go to war imminently … not through the media”.

    The official Iraqi News Agency said President Saddam had last night warned that if Iraq was attacked, it will take the war anywhere in the world ”wherever there is sky, land or water”. – Guardian Unlimited Â