Part one of the Final Four revealed some interesting facts about the strengths and weaknesses of Australia and Sri Lanka, but the conclusion was always going to be very one-sided: if Australia don’t win it would be a very big upset indeed.
But what about the other game, to be played under lights on a very weird Durban pitch on Thursday? It was the scene of India’s great victory against England, and they have been the second-best side this tournament. They have outright said how relieved they are to be playing Kenya, and no matter how well the Kenyans have played this world cup any other side would feel exactly the same.
I guess the question you have to ask is: Can you see an Australia vs India final, or do you see a Sri Lanka vs Kenya one? Pretty obvious, really. But the element of surprise is always there, and the Kenyans have proved that they can come within five wickets of beating Australia, as they did in their last Super Six game against the Aussies on Saturday. And if they can come within five wickets of beating Australia, you have to assume that they can do better against India.
Here’s how they stack up:
Semifinal Two: India vs Kenya (Thursday 20/03, Durban, Day/Night)
India have had a sublime run in since their only loss of the tournament against Australia, and have clearly been the next-best side of the showpiece. Their batsmen have scored only two runs less than the Aussies, although it has been less of a team effort, and more the Sachin Show. Nonetheless – no matter how the runs come, as long as they come they are more than welcome.
The Indian bowling has been as impressive, with the quick trio of Zaheer Khan, Jay Srinath and Ashish Nehra pulling most of the wickets. Between the three of them they have taken 43 wickets, at an average of 18.26, and they have swung it with greater accuracy than anyone in the tournament bar Chaminda Vaas. It is a very different bowling attack to the one we’re used to, which is usually stacked with spinners, but Harbhajan hasn’t really fired, and Kumble has inexplicably been under-utilised (he’s only played three games, but taken 5 wickets at an average of 21.40, which in the context of a big-hitting tournament is pretty damn special).
Should India get to the final (and they should) I think they would be wise to use Kumble, who has had his fair share of success against Australia, and has more experience than the rest of the team put together.
But to face Australia in the final India must first beat Kenya, and while we can be reasonably confident that they will, the Kenyans will give them something to think about.
The only people not to be surprised at the success of the Kenyans this world cup are the Kenyans themselves – they have maintained from the outset that they want to win the World Cup, and damn everyone else. They’ve been scoffed at since the start, and yet are making history by being the first non-Test nation in the history of the World Cup to make the semifinals.
The odds against them even beating India are still huge, and knowing what we do now about them it might be wise to take an outside chance with your cash, and place a few bob on them.
Their best chance of beating India lies in the Sub-Continent Factor (which for those of you who don’t know is the term I use to describe the anomaly that no matter how well an Asian side is currently playing, they are always only fifty overs away from a spectacular defeat against a team of no-hopers).
India have been known to suffer this, although to be fair they look a far better side than I can ever remember seeing them. But the chance of it happening is still there, particularly if Kenya engineer it that way – something they have proved more than capable of doing.
Kenya’s biggest asset is without doubt their fine captain, Steve Tikolo, who despite being the best batsman in the side hasn’t fired at all with the bat this world cup. But his captaincy and bowling have been outstanding, and he is primarily the reason behind their success.
He showed extreme balls and maturity in the game against Australia — his fielding positions defending a low total (174) were spot on, and at times audacious, and it payed off for him when his side bagged five wickets. The pressure was created by sticking a silly mid-off directly under the noses of the right-handers, as well as rotations of slips and short mid-wicket fielders. What this meant was the Aussie batsmen constantly had someone standing right in their faces, loudly applauding each ball, and with the ball turning nicely for the likes of Asif Karim and Collins Obuya it was no easy task for the Aussies.
Their best chance lies in winning the Durban toss and batting first, as they have proved more adroit at defending a small total than at chasing a large one. The Indians will be confident but nervous, and if the ball holds up and turns, and the Kenyans have posted 200 or near as dammit, the Indian batsmen are going to be sweating. Get Sachin, Ganguly and Dravid out (that sounds very casual, but it’s not exactly an easy task), and the balance will swing towards Kenya. Watch.
I would think India would take the win no matter which way the toss goes, but you never know. The Sub-Continent Factor could strike, Sachin could have his one due failure, and Steve Tikolo could capitalise on the form that saw him get 50 in his last game against Aussie. As much as India believe they can win, so do the Kenyans, and I’m tired of betting against them.
Should they beat India then all the money I have in the world (-R9600 and counting) will be on them to lift the trophy against Australia. But until then I have to go with India, and wouldn’t be averse to another master class from Sachin.
Whichever way it goes it is going to be a fine game, not something I would have said a few weeks ago had you told me the two would be playing to get into the final. I will be supporting the Kenyans all the way, as of every team in this tournament they have been the ones to excel more than any other side. Let’s face it — it’s hardly a surprise that Australia and India are there, and you can even make a case for Sri Lanka, which means those three teams have fulfilled their potential.
But Kenya has gone way above the call of duty, and it’s time for some brotherly love between them and us. Africa-style.
Cheers,
The Twelfth Man