With its prayers unanswered of avoiding a war in Iraq, South Africa must hope for a short, sharp operation. President Thabo Mbeki’s principled stand against the forceful disarmament of Iraq has put South Africa’s relations with two of its most important friends in the balance.
As columns of United States armoured vehicles moved into the Kuwait-Iraq demilitarised zone, South Africa was by no means alone in opposing the bellicose option taken by the US, Britain and other members of the so-called alliance of the willing.
Diplomats from this alliance say that it is what South Africa does once the fighting has started that will determine the long-term course of those relations.
”Unfortunately in times of war countries drop the subtleties and think in headline terms. It sounds dramatic to say ‘you are either for us or against us’ but that is how leaders think in wartime,” said a diplomat.
”Those of us who look to long-term relations with South Africa are concerned that the good things will be eclipsed by any rough spots that might arise during the fighting,” said another diplomat.
”We have so much respect for South Africa, so much in common in terms of democratic and social values that we would hate to see relations coloured by differences over Iraq.
”We hope any damage to relations will be short term. South Africa is seen in both Washington and London as a leader in Africa, so its statements about our actions are looked at very closely.
”In Britain, for example, Prime Minister Tony Blair’s commitment to Africa is beyond question. He regards Thabo Mbeki as a man of like mind and values with whom he can easily do business. They are both men of the centre left.
”Blair does not feel that he has to defend what he has done for Africa. He is the strongest Western supporter of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development [Nepad].He has worked tirelessly for conflict resolution in Africa. He believes passionately that Saddam Hussein is a very bad man who has to go.
”The South African government may differ but it should not paint Blair as the bad guy. Blair accepts that many people, including some in his own government, oppose the action in Iraq.
”If that action goes as planned and ends quickly there will be a lot of work to do supporting the Iraqi people. South Africa’s role there will be important.”
South Africa’s criticism of US and British action against Iraq will be weighed against its own stance on moral issues like Zimbabwe, say envoys. ”Certainly Zimbabwe poses a much greater threat to Nepad than our action against Iraq,” said one.
The best news for Africa from Whitehall, they say, is that Development Minister Claire Short, who called Blair’s Iraqi policy ”reckless” has opted not to quit his Cabinet. ”She has taken a keen personal interest in Africa and will not allow it to be moved on to the back burner.”
”Whatever fallout there might in relations with Britain, we have too much in common and so much equity that we cannot allow it to be anything more than temporary,” said an official concerned with trade and investment.
US and British diplomats do not accept the argument from South African and other opponents of their action that attacking Iraq will do lasting damage to the United Nations.
”We are acting in support of the UN by backing up resolutions it has passed on Iraq. What credibility would the UN have if it threatens ‘serious consequences’ and then backs down in the face of Iraqi intransigence?
”We don’t believe the multilateral system will be profoundly affected by this action,” said a Washington envoy.
”Everything we have done so far has been through the UN Security Council. Unfortunately we could not agree on the final action, but that is not cataclysmic.
”Disagreement is the norm at the UN. We don’t accept that our action will be devastating for development in Africa and the rest of the world. Bilateral relations have not been damaged by South Africa’s opposition to our action. The really vocal and hurtful criticism has come from non-governmental sources in South Africa, not from officials.
”If South Africa helps Iraq after the war, great. There will be great opportunity to cooperate in development there and other parts of the world.”