US and Iraqi forces appear to be poised on the outskirts of Baghdad to begin their first big tank battle since the last Gulf war 12 years ago, but this time it is likely to be only an overture to a clash in the Iraqi capital itself.
Tony Blair called the coming engagement with the Medina Division of the Iraqi Republican Guard a ”crucial moment”, and it will be the first big test of the ability and willingness of Saddam Hussein’s best troops to fight a pitched battle.
The last time such a confrontation took place the massed Iraqi divisions were nearly wiped out where they stood by US B-52 bombers. Those who survived to take on the approaching coalition armour were hit by incoming fire before the US tanks came within range.
When, after the war, he rued leaving his troops exposed as easy targets in the desert, it was the only time President Saddam had been known to admit making a mistake.
This time it is different. Three Republican Guard divisions are defending a heavily populated ”red zone” around Baghdad. The US forces are probing their way forward, testing the Iraqi defences as they go, in the hope that they will surrender rather than face obliteration by weeks of aerial bombing.
The risk they are taking was evident yesterday, when Apache helicopters were forced to withdraw, riddled with bullet holes, from a ”hornet’s nest” of defences around the Iraqi capital.
They face another potentially serious problem. The race to Baghdad has left their long supply line from Kuwait unprotected, and officers are privately complaining that the US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence on carrying out the offensive with only one heavy armoured division has left the supply columns dangerously exposed to guerrilla attacks.
When the Republican Guard are in the open, they are unlikely to provide a match for the US. Their Soviet-era T-72 tanks can be picked off from the air, and their range is far shorter than US Abrams tanks and artillery. The problems for the US commander, General Tommy Franks, will begin when the Iraqi forces move into civilian-populated areas, robbing the US of some of the advantages of air superiority. Tanks and artillery fire also run the risk of killing non-combatants.
In some areas, there may be no option but to move into the Iraqi suburbs on foot, an experience which is likely to provide a bitter foretaste of the battle for Baghdad proper, where Saddam’s best troops, the Special Republican Guard, are waiting.
The last time American troops were involved in large scale urban warfare, they were in Vietnam, fighting for the city of Hue during the 1968 Tet offensive. The shock at the consequent number of American casualties helped bolster opposition to the Vietnam war.
The 20 000 troops of the 101st Airborne Division are setting up bases from which to launch helicopter assaults on Baghdad or targets further north, while the 3rd Infantry Division squares off against the Republican Guard.
Even before the battle commences, questions are being asked in the US over whether Gen Franks has been given enough troops to carry out the task without leaving his supply routes vulnerable to attack.
In line with Rumsfeld’s push to ”transform” the US military, by making it less dependent on heavy armoured divisions, and more on air superiority, special forces and non-conventional warfare, the 170 000-strong combat force in Iraq is a third of the size of the one used to achieve the lesser task of freeing Kuwait in Desert Storm 12 years ago.
”I’m hearing from friends of mine in the Gulf they’re just furious now,” said Ralph Peters, a retired army intelligence lieutenant colonel. ”Traditionally when we do this kind of hyper-velocity attack, you need to give the troops a rest after four or five days and you have a fresh division move in up the lines.”
He insisted there was no doubt that the coalition would ultimately succeed but argued there were not enough troops to properly secure lines of communication back to bases in Kuwait.
The 4th Infantry Division, originally intended to be based in Turkey, has now been ordered to Kuwait and southern Iraq but it will be more than a week before it is in a position to go into battle.
Other military analysts in Washington, however, expressed optimism that the US and Britain had enough troops to take on Baghdad and its Republican Guard defenders in the coming days.
”Most of the force out there has not really engaged. There is the entire MEF (Marine Expeditionary Force), about 70 000 marines, there and only a small number have been in battle. The 82nd Airborne has not been used,” Daniel Goure, a Pentagon adviser at the Lexington Institute in Washington, said.
There are mounting problems of equipment too. Supplies for the 4th Infantry Division are on transport ships which have been in the eastern Mediterranean for weeks waiting for permission to use Turkish territory.
The ships are now on their way to the Gulf and may either dock in Kuwait or in the captured Iraqi port of Umm Qasr at some point this week.
The 4th Infantry Division will either relieve infantry on the frontline or be used to reinforce supply lines that have been stretched by the speed of the main thrusts towards Baghdad.
Patrick Garrett, an analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, a military thinktank in Washington, said: ”The question is whether there is enough equipment in the north to secure the area.”
The 173rd Airborne Brigade has been flying into Kurdish-controlled airstrips in recent days, but the 6 000-strong force is lightly equipped, and would be no match for the Republican Guard divisions in the north of Iraq.
Gen Franks’s strategy appears to be to send some forces from the south to keep the northern divisions at Mosul and Kirkuk at bay. Meanwhile the 173rd would have to secure the area alone.
A final worry in the Pentagon is that the Republican Guard divisions outside Baghdad are there simply to slow down the US advance and leave the attacking troops vulnerable to an attack with chemical or biological warheads. If they are used at all, US troops will not know it until they are unleashed at them at the gates of the capital. – Guardian Unlimited Â