A further 1 000 troops were poured into the oil-rich Niger delta this week to quell two weeks of violence that have shaken Africa’s most populous country.
More than 3 000 Nigerian troops are now deployed in the area — hardly the kind of development conducive to orderly elections in little more than a fortnight.
The fighting over the distribution of oil wealth and political constituency boundaries between two of the countries 250 ethnic groups took on much wider ramifications as the war on Iraq raged.
Nigeria is the world’s sixth-largest oil producer — most of its output going to the United States. Violence in the delta has cut production by about 800000 barrels a day — 40% of Nigeria’s production.
Military authorities said this week they had been able to secure all the major oil facilities in the area, including the ChevronTexaco Escravos export terminal and the Forcados export terminal operated by Royal Dutch Shell.
They would now be reinforcing military posts at smaller facilities in more remote locations that have come under attack from Ijaw militants. At least 10 soldiers were among the 100 people killed when Ijaws clashed with Itsekeris over the allocation of electoral seats ahead of the parliamentary and provincial elections on April 12 and the presidential poll a week later.
The Ijaws have accused the military of siding with the Itsekeris after troops killed more than 55 militants and an unknown number of villagers in raids.
The militants have warned that if the raids continue they will blow up 11 oil facilities they have seized.
This has proved too much for the multinationals. ChevronTexaco has closed the Escravos facility, TotalFina-Elf has pulled out of an oil storage farm and Shell has evacuated four facilities.
The crisis hits at the one significant achievement President Olusegun Obasanjo might have pointed to after four years of rule.
With his economy in crisis and corruption burgeoning — Transparency International lists Nigeria as the second-most corrupt nation on the planet — petrol queues are again forming around the country. The shortage started more than a month ago when oil workers struck for higher pay and more autonomy for the industry’s monitoring body.
The problem has been compounded by government’s heavy subsidy on petrol prices. Consumers pay three times the pump price for black market fuel to beat the shortage, but muscularly resist even modest increases in the official price to meet world norms.
Obasanjo has muttered that the whole affair is simply an attempt to sabotage his bid for a second term. It could not have come at a worse time for him. His anti-corruption drive has foundered on accusations that he pressed the specially established body to persecute his opponents.
The majority of political parties have expressed doubts that the Independent National Electoral Commission is ready for the polls.
Voters have not yet been issued with cards they should have had and the voters’ rolls have not been displayed for scrutiny as required.
The last time elections were organised by a civilian government was in 1983. These were so deeply flawed that a military takeover followed within months.
Obasanjo, himself a military leader in the late 1970s, moved his campaign this week into Benue State where 18 months ago troops acting on his orders killed hundreds of civilians in reprisal for the deaths of 19 soldiers at the hands of local militia.
Benue voted strongly for the ruling People’s Democratic Party in the 1999 election that ended more than 15 years of military rule. This time, however, it could fall to the opposition.
Obasanjo’s main rival is Mahammadu Buhari, who leads the All Nigeria People’s Party.