Gross domestic product (GDP) growth could disappoint on both a global and South African level, Martin Jankelowitz, head of market and economic research at Investment Solutions wrote in his April commentary.
“Financial market sentiment continues to fluctuate with the war in Iraq, with investors optimistic that a smooth and quick end to the war will lead to a global upswing. This optimism may, however, be premature,” Jankelowitz wrote.
Forecast risk in the current environment is extremely high, which is why Investment Solutions believes geo-political tensions are placing an increased burden on an already fragile global economy, as well as creating enormous divides between the world’s superpowers. The company maintains its view that we are in the midst of a post-equity meltdown and stretched balance sheet convalescence. Consequently, risk-management through diversification remains paramount.
The picture painted in the first quarter is clear, with the flow of macroeconomic data continuing to reflect an anaemic global economy. After indicating positive (albeit pedestrian) trends, anecdotal evidence suggests a deterioration in the global economic outlook.
Key indicators such as the US ISM Index (a measurement of manufacturing activity, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion), as well as the G7, US, UK, German and French leading indicators have all turned south. In the case of the UK, the leading indicator has been declining for nine consecutive months.
Business sentiment indicators in the US, Europe and Japan (despite the bank of Japan appointing a new governor) have all deteriorated. Not surprisingly, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have cut interest rates by 0,25%. Moreover, the probability of a US rate cut is increasing.
US first quarter corporate earnings, due to start flowing through from around mid-April, appear highly likely to disappoint. The problem is that US equities remain on demanding valuations, with the S&P 500 on a trailing PE of 31 times reported earnings and dividend yields still at a low 1,9%.
Consequently, Investment Solutions believes the equity bear market has not ended. In addition, the company maintains its negative view on the US dollar. A current account deficit of 5% of GDP is Investment Solutions’ rationale for this. The US remains highly dependent on foreign capital inflows and is vulnerable to a marginal change in sentiment.
US consumer spending continues to appear vulnerable. Investment Solutions is not suggesting a spending implosion, but rather limited growth in real terms. This could be important, as the US consumer has been the primary driver of demand. The concern is that consumer spending retraces before corporate spending recovers.
Consumer confidence levels (as measured by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board) have declined sharply to levels last seen in 1992/3. Latest data indicate borrowing by US households is growing at an annualised 11%, the largest debt build up in 13 years. Household debt relative to after- tax income is at a record high of 110%.
The employment outlook is not being supportive. The US economy lost 262 000 jobs in the first quarter, the worst quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2001. Latest data suggest signs of strain are already emerging. US sales data have been weaker than consensus expectations, car sales are exceeding production and the inventory of unsold homes has risen to a seven- year high.
Rand strength continued to dominate South African sentiment and asset class performance. Relative to the US dollar, the South African rand appreciated by 8% during the first quarter, meaning it has now appreciated by 43% since its low point in December 2001.
Interestingly, foreign exchange market turnover fell to the lowest levels since 1997.
Although favourable interest rate differentials are significant, Investment Solutions believes current rand strength is also being driven by global factors, namely a weaker dollar and stronger precious metals prices (this is supported by the strength of other resource-based currencies such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada).
The currency strength, coupled with global equity market weakness, led to the FTSE/JSE ALSI giving a total return (including dividends) of negative 16% for the quarter. The effects of the currency and global markets are reflected in the fact that FTSE/JSE Small Caps (negative 3%) and Mid Caps (negative 10%) outperformed the rand hedge-sensitive and partly offshore-priced FTSE/JSE Top 40 Companies (negative 17%).
Bonds continued to be the best performing local asset class, with the ALBI returning 4.8% for the quarter and cash 3,4%.
Domestic equity valuations continue to be on historically very undemanding valuations. The dividend yield and PE multiple on the FTSE/JSE ALSI, at 4% and nine times, respectively, are at levels last observed in 1991.
This means the JSE is on a lower rating than the nadir of the 1997 Asian market crisis, the 1998 Russian debt default and the 2001 terrorist attacks. While rand strength will inevitably place pressure on corporate earnings, current share prices appear to have more than factored this in. Significantly, value managers (who emphasise individual company fundamentals in their selection process) have been increasing their exposure to domestic equities.
Domestic inflationary trends appear positive, with CPIX declining to 11,3% y/y, headline inflation at 12,5% y/y and the PPI falling sharply to 6,2% y/y. Rising unit labour costs, coupled with declining productivity growth, continue to be of concern.
Investment Solutions expects the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to maintain its hawkish stance, with Governor Tito Mboweni commenting that there was “little room for complacency on the part of monetary policy”.
Investment Solutions maintains its view that the Reserve Bank is likely to announce the first rate cut in June.
The effects of higher interest rates are being felt, with latest household consumption momentum slowing to its lowest rate of increase since the first quarter of 1999.
Durable goods spending has been the primary casualty but semi- and non- durable sales have also slowed.
Gross fixed capital formation remains strong and essentially continues to drive domestic demand. This ties in with Investment Solutions’ observation of the negative sloping yield curve, implying that growth may not be as strong as consensus expectations or that the benefits will not be broad-based. – I-Net Bridge