The deadly Sars virus claimed 12 more lives yesterday as fears over the menace posed by the outbreak rose with reports of fresh cases in countries around the world.
The latest victims of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome were reported yesterday in Hong Kong, the territory’s biggest number in a single day. But records are being broken all the time by what appears to be one of the most contagious diseases known.
It can be transmitted via a sewage pipe, the button on a lift, the air in a plane. It may also do what 11 September never managed and tip Asia’s economy into full-blown recession.
As of last night, 3 461 people in 25 countries had been infected, resulting in 170 deaths. According to the World Health Organisation, India, Australia and Malaysia are the latest nations to have suspected or probable cases.
Thousands of families in affected areas have accepted a voluntary isolation upon themselves, stocking up with food and fuel to avoid contact with neighbours, as they belatedly realise that masks will not be sufficient protection. Schools have closed and employees are not turning up to work. Cinema visits are out.
The real panic is caused by infected individuals who have no intention of going into voluntary quarantine. The ‘super-infective’ carrier who decides to cross a border and risks spreading the disease is what most alarms public health experts.
This is what has happened in Indonesia, where a 47-year-old British man, suspected of being the country’s only Sars case, fled to Hong Kong. Discharged from hospital in Jakarta on Friday, he was told to stay home for two weeks, but escaped.
In Canada, public health officials fear they are losing control. The country has 247 suspected and probable cases, all stemming from a single elderly female traveller who returned from Hong Kong unaware of the virus she was harbouring. Thousands of people in Toronto with flu-like symptoms have put themselves into voluntary quarantine, but officials know that other symptomatic patients are refusing to isolate themselves. They are concerned about two people who cannot be traced back to the original outbreak at the city’s hospital.
The economic impact of Sars is terrifying world leaders and financial institutions. Singapore’s Prime Minister, Goh Chok Tong, warned yesterday: ”If we fail to contain Sars, it may well become the worst crisis our country has faced.”
Estimating it has cost the city-state $847-million so far, he added: ”Sars will knock you backward, it may even kill you, but I can tell you Sars can kill the economy and all of us will be killed by the collapsing economy.”
He announced strict new measures to prevent people from flouting home quarantine orders, including fines and prison terms. Officials are using cameras and electronic wrist tags to monitor those under quarantine, in a country which has reported 16 deaths and 172 cases of the pneumonia-like illness.
In Hong Kong, health officials said seven of the 12 new fatalities were elderly people with other chronic illnesses. But the rest were younger, fitter patients, joining a group of victims whose deaths have raised worries about how deadly the disease can be. Banks have revised growth forecasts for the territory, as the disease has halved retail sales and crippled tourism.
Asia-Pacific tourist industry bosses tried to put a brave face on the situation at their annual gathering in Bali last week, as they faced the prospect of airlines refusing to run flights in affected areas.
Britain has so far escaped the worst. Six people have fallen ill but either recovered or are responding to treatment. A seventh, a charity worker from Scotland, was reported to be in a London hospital yesterday.
The disease is having an impact on UK firms which are refusing to send employees to the Far East after the Foreign Office said only essential travel should be considered. The only people likely to profit from the outbreak are the drugs companies, which are racing to create a ”gold-standard” test for the illness, which could net millions of dollars.
A fast test that would have a 99% accuracy rate may be on the market within 10 to 12 weeks, according to one leading company. This would be an important milestone in the fight, not only for scientists but also for political leaders in Asia whose countries need to identify human carriers and curb the spread of the disease before it damages their economies further.
Roche, the Swiss company, pioneered PCR (polymerase chain reaction) technology, a form of a genetic copying machine that amplifies the tiniest trace of the disease. Last year it made a diagnostic test for anthrax in six weeks.
Heiner Dreismann, head of Roche’s molecular diagnostics team, said: ”We can produce a diagnostic test which is foolproof and can be made from any laboratory.” But it takes longer to make a test for a new virus.
His team is working with hospitals in Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany and Canada. Once a test passes trials at the hospitals, Dreismann said, they would be prepared to sell it commercially within eight weeks.
German biotech company Artus claims it has a test, in a throat swab, which can detect Sars within two hours. The news has been greeted with caution, amid concerns that some patients have been reported to have the disease without scientists spotting the virus.
A Dutch vet died of pneumonia last week after catching bird flu while working with poultry infected with avian virus, raising fears that a mutated version of the virus could cause a Sars-type epidemic in humans. -Guardian Unlimited Â