/ 30 May 2003

Consumer inflation down to 8,5%

South Africa’s CPIX inflation (headline inflation excluding mortgage costs) was up 8,5% year-on-year (y/y) for metro and other areas in April compared with a revised 9,3% (11,2%) in March, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Friday. CPIX was up 0,3% month-on-month (m/m).

Headline inflation — the 12-month rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) for metropolitan areas — was up 8,8% y/y in April from a revised 10,2% (12,5%) y/y in March.

CPIX is the inflation measure targeted by the Reserve Bank for purposes of inflation targeting.

The release of this data was delayed by 10 days while Stats SA undertook an investigation after a computation error crept into the compilation of the data.

Prior to the announcement of the delay in the release of the data CPIX was expected to ease to a median of 10,4% y/y from March’s 11,2% y/y and February’s 11,3% y/y.

The rate in January was 11,8% y/y from December’s 12,4% y/y and a recent peak of 12,7% y/y in November. The range of forecasts was from 10,0% y/y to 10,7% y/y.

Stats SA announced Friday that the consumer inflation data will be revised back to January 2002.

Stats SA said the lower annual rate of 8,8% at April 2003 compared with that at March 2003 could be explained by decreases in the inflation rates for the following:

  • the CPI for housing for which the rate decreased from 16,4% at March 2003 to a lower rate of 12,8% at April 2003.

  • the CPI for non-alcoholic beverages for which the rate decreased from 14,2% at March 2003 to a lower rate of 10,9% at April 2003.

  • the CPI for food for which the rate decreased from 12,4% at March 2003 to a lower rate of 11,1% at April 2003.

  • the CPI for transport for which the rate decreased from 8,1% at March 2003 to a lower rate of 6,0% at April 2003.

    However, it said these annual increases were counteracted by an annual increase in the inflation rate for:

  • the CPI for alcoholic beverages for which the rate increased from 9,4% at March 2003 to a higher rate of 11,4% at April 2003.

    From March 2003 to April 2003 the Consumer Price Index for the historical metropolitan areas increased by 0,3% and the seasonally adjusted index remained unchanged.

    “The annual increase of 8,8% in the Consumer Price Index for the historical metropolitan areas is mainly due to annual increases in the price indices for housing (+ 2,7 percentage points), food (+ 2,5 percentage points), transport (+ 0,9 of a percentage point), medical care and health expenses (+ 0,8 of a percentage point), education (+ 0,4 of a percentage point) and personal care (+ 0,4 of a percentage point). These annual increases were slightly counteracted by an annual decrease in the price index for recreation and entertainment (- 0,1 of a percentage point),” Stats SA stated.

    “The annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index excluding interest rates on mortgage bonds (CPIX) for the historical metropolitan and other urban areas is 8,5% at April 2003 (i.e. the CPIX at April 2003 compared with that at April 2002).

    “The annual percentage change in the CPIX, which is the Consumer Price Index excluding the interest rate on mortgage bonds, for the historical metropolitan and other urban areas is 8,5% at April 2003 (i.e. the CPIX at April 2003 compared with that at April 2002). This rate is 0,8 of a percentage point lower than the corresponding annual rate of 9,3% at March 2003. From March 2003 to April 2003 the CPIX for the historical metropolitan and other urban areas increased by 0,3% and the seasonally adjusted index increased by 0,2%.

    “The annual increase of 8,5% in the CPIX for the historical metropolitan and other urban areas is mainly due to annual increases in the price indices for food (+ 3,1 percentage points), housing, excluding interest rates on mortgage bonds (+ 1.3 percentage points, due to increases in all components in certain areas), transport (+ 0,9 of a percentage point), medical care and health expenses (+ 0,9 of a percentage point) and personal care (+ 0,5 of a percentage point). These annual increases were slightly counteracted by an annual decrease in the price index for recreation and entertainment (- 0,1 of a percentage point).” – I-Net Bridge