South Africa’s Western Cape wheat growing area, the Swartland, experienced 10% of its normal rainfall in June and if rainfall in July similarly is low the probability of wheat crop failure in the area is very high, grain broker Commodity Trading House (CTH) said in a note on Wednesday.
However, the Western Cape’s Southern Cape wheat-growing region is experiencing favourable crop conditions at this stage. CTH sees the possibility of two scenarios for the crop in the Swartland. In the first scenario it sees favourable rainfall falls during July, in which case it is anticipated that 348 000 tons and 227 000 tons of wheat would be harvested for the Swartland and Southern Cape respectively.
This would mean a potential crop of 575 000 tons for the Western Cape as a whole, which would be 360 000 tons or 37% lower than 2002.
In the second instance, the current weather pattern persists during July and a wheat crop of 460 000 tons is a more likely scenario. It may even be less if drought conditions persist during August and September.
“The second scenario will bring back memories of 1978 when a major crop failure was experienced in the Swartland region due to a very similar rainfall pattern that was experienced to date,” CTH said.
It is very important that the adequate precipitation is experienced during July in order to stabilise the current situation and prevent the risk of crop failure and hopefully a wheat crop of more than 500 000 tons, the broker added. – I-Net Bridge