Zimbabwe does not appear on the manifest of African conflicts that will come under the spotlight at next week’s African Union (AU) summit in Maputo.
By any normal measure, Zimbabwe should take up the rear on the alphabetical list of hotspots running from Angola through Burundi, Central African Republic, the Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Liberia, Somalia and Sudan.
But Africa has measured President Robert Mugabe’s theft of the election last year as free and fair and judged that country’s problems to be an internal matter.
”South Africa has built a common position on Zimbabwe that has rallied African countries on what they see as a north-south issue,” says Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies.
”In African terms Zimbabwe is a strong, powerful country with a liberation president. In a collection of relatively weak countries, what power do they have to act even if they perceived him to be wrong?”
So, even if the protocol for the proposed African Peace and Security Council gets the required 15 ratifications to bring it into force, Zimbabwe is unlikely to make its list of clients.
Three elections will be the most interesting political events at the meeting of the 53-nation group.
The first of these, to be conducted at heads-of-state level, will see Alpha Konare, the former president of Mali, take on Amara Essy of Côte d’Ivoire for the increasingly powerful post of chairperson of the 10-member AU Secretariat.
Konare appears to be the favourite in this race. He has the support of South Africa, although officials in Pretoria concede that Essy did a good job as interim chairperson in the union’s formative first year.
South Africa, says Cilliers, did ”an extraordinary job transforming the Organisation of African Unity into the AU. If you ask what is the difference between the two, one has to say it is South Africa. South Africa will continue to play a prominent role in the union even after Mozambique takes over the chairmanship.
”President Thabo Mbeki will remain a member of the leadership troika of past, present and future chairmen. With Nigeria, South Africa will be a virtually permanent member of the Peace and Security Council.”
The third member of the troika should be Mark Ravalomanana of Madagascar.
With South Africa finally having accepted the constitutionality of Ravalomanana’s ousting of Didier Ratsiraka early last year, Madagascar has been admitted to the AU.
Madagascar was barred from the inaugural AU summit in Durban under the regulation red-carding of any government that came to power by extra-constitutional means.
It is by no means certain that Madagascar will host the 2004 summit. The island state patently does not have the means to stage such an event and African leaders are asking whether they want to attend a summit that will have to be bankrolled by France.
There are plans therefore to move the 2004 summit to the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa. This will be happening in any event every alternate year after 2008.
The elections for the deputy chairperson and eight other commissioners will provide some fascinating contests at regional level.
Each of the AU’s five regions must have two members on the commission and the body has to have at least five women.
South Africa has not presented any candidates for the commission.
Foreign ministers will also have to vote for three of the 11 members of the African commission on human rights and for four of the 11 members of the African committee of experts on the rights and welfare of the child.
The secretariat, currently operating on a budget of $31-million, will eventually increase in size to 749 people with a budget of $53-million. This puts additional pressure on those countries whose collective arrears amount to $43-million
South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, Libya and Egypt currently pick up 40% of the AU tab every year. This could well increase in future as the payment ceiling of 8,5% of the total budget for countries with the economic capacity is raised and a minimum of 0,25% for poor and indebted countries is lowered.
Libya’s Moammar Gadaffi will be taking his tent and 250 people to Maputo. But will he be as flamboyant as he was last year, when he tried several times to upstage his host?
There are signs that Gadaffi, who appears unable to sustain a relationship for longer than five years, is losing the appetite he acquired for Africa after turning his back on the Arab world.
Apart from African help in breaking the logjam over the Lockerbie incident and ending United Nations sanctions, Libya’s returns from the Organisation of African Unity and the AU have disappointed the country. South Africa and Nigeria have frustrated Gadaffi’s attempts to dominate the organisation by paying the subscriptions of some poorer countries in return for their votes.
If, as appears likely, Libya loses the contest with South Africa to host the proposed Pan African Parliament, Gadaffi might well turn to Italy and other countries on the Mediterranean basin to beef up business and break down his rogue state reputation.