South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said on Monday that the World Bank report on the impact of Aids in South Africa was unhelpful.
Manuel was responding to a report released last week by the World Bank, which stated that South Africa could face progressive economic collapse within several generations unless it combats its Aids epidemic more urgently.
“If the objective was to scare people I am sure that they succeeded, but the problem with these kinds of models is the assumptions that go into them. We must guard against the old computer adage of ‘garbage in, garbage out’. The one thing I am certain of is that society will change its behaviour when faced with a challenge of this magnitude. I feel that the HIV/Aids debate is becoming too polarised.
“We need ongoing education and more discussion on things like nutrition. There are interventions that allow people living with HIV to extend their lives beyond what was thought possible only a few years ago,” the minister said.
The World Bank study stated that not only does Aids destroy existing human capital, but by killing mostly young adults, it also weakens the mechanism through which knowledge and abilities are transmitted from one generation to the next; for the children of Aids victims will be left without one or both parents to love, raise and educate them.
In the absence of Aids, the counterfactual benchmark, there is modest growth, with universal and complete education attained within three generations.
If nothing is done to combat the Aids epidemic, however, a complete economic collapse will occur within three generations, the study said.
The study recommended that with optimal spending on combating the disease, and if there is pooling (where all children are cared for within an extended family), growth is maintained, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than in the benchmark case in the absence of Aids.
If pooling breaks down, and is replaced by nuclear families, growth will be slower still. Indeed, if school-attendance subsidies are not possible, growth will be distinctly sluggish the report continued.
In all three cases, the additional fiscal burden of intervention will be large, the study concluded. – I-Net Bridge