/ 22 September 2003

Cappy’s predictions for the World Cup

Given the column inches and air time devoted to it in this country you could be forgiven for believing that the only matches that count at RWC 2003 are the inevitable pool encounter between South Africa and England in Perth and the (almost equally inevitable) quarterfinal between South Africa and New Zealand in Brisbane.

But there are 17 other teams at the fifth edition of the World Cup and Pool C — where South Africa and England campaign — is some distance from being the most fascinating of the four sections. Pool B, for instance, is the most difficult to predict in the history of the competition.

France will be favoured to qualify at the top of the group, but on neutral grounds it’s not stretching the bounds of possibility to believe that the other four sides are all capable of beating each other. The weight of history favours Scotland, but it would be a brave punter who lumped too much of his hard earned cash on them.

For one thing Scotland have been battling it out with Wales and Italy for the wooden spoon in the Six Nations tournament since the last World Cup — and for another, Japan, Fiji and the USA are all capable on their day of playing the game in the grand style. Whichever team qualifies second, however, will probably say goodbye at the quarterfinal mark because they are likely to meet Australia at that stage.

The bookies installed New Zealand as early favourites, and refused to be swayed in their opinion by England’s unprecedented and unbeaten season, which finally concluded in July. Clive Woodward’s men beat the Tri-Nations teams in successive weekends before Christmas, and then did the Six Nations Grand Slam before flying south to beard the All Blacks and the Wallabies in their own dens.

England start as overwhelming favourites to beat South Africa in Perth on October 18th, but then again that was the case in Paris in 1999 when Jannie de Beer’s unerring boot sent Woodward’s men packing. The prize for the winner of the Perth clash is the easiest route of all to the semi-finals, against one of Wales, Italy, Canada or Tonga, all of whom are destined to be hammered by the All Blacks in Pool D.

Pool D, in fact, shares much in common with Pool B in terms of the unpredictability of second place. Wales are at a low ebb, Tonga lack discipline and Canada no longer have the mighty pack that scared a lot of major teams in the 1990s.

It might seem crazy to even suggest it, but Italy has perhaps the best chance of the quartet, with little expected of them and the great John Kirwan as their coach. It was Kirwan who scored one of the most memorable tries of all time against Italy in the inaugural tournament and he is well capable on inspiring his men to achieve great things.

The fly in the ointment of Pool C is Samoa, who reached the quarterfinals in 1991 and 1995 and narrowly lost in a playoff to reach the same stage in 1999. South Africa beat them at Ellis Park in the 1995 quarterfinal, the match when Tana Umaga’s brother, Mike, nearly ended Andre Joubert’s World Cup with an act of thuggery. This year Samoa will be ill disciplined, poor at the set pieces and dynamic in broken play; the mix as before, in fact.

In Pool A the Argentine Pumas will play the same role as Samoa in Pool B. The host nation will expect to qualify unbeaten, but the Pumas have run Australia mightily close in recent years and reached the quarterfinals in 1999. That was at the expense of Ireland who lost in a playoff in the French town of Lens.

But this is a considerably more gifted Irish side than that of four years ago, while the Pumas may be coming to the end of a period in which their talent did not bring as many wins as it should have. So look out France, who will almost certainly have to play Ireland at the quarterfinal stage in Melbourne.

It goes without saying that this kind of journalistic speculation can go horribly wrong. The last soccer World Cup saw both France and Italy dumped at an early stage, while the performance of Kenya in the Cricket World Cup was the kind of prediction you’d have needed a Technicolor Dreamcoat to get right.

But what’s the point in pussyfooting? Here’s an early guess at the quarterfinals:

New Zealand v South Africa

Australia v Scotland

France v Ireland

England v Wales

Now remove three of the five Six Nations teams and two of the three Tri-Nations teams and you have the semi-finalists. Oh, all right then, New Zealand v Australia and France v England. So, for the fourth time in five attempts we have the perfect finale, north v south. Well, if you insist, New Zealand v England.

A Northern Hemisphere team has never won the event and the All Blacks are the bookies favourites so it’s inevitable really. England. Ha, fooled you.