The latest police report on crime in South Africa shows the police battling against crimes embedded in the “social fabric”.
For instance, 50% to 80% of the 1 000 crimes reported per week take place between people who know each other. In many rape cases, the report said, the complainant and perpetrator had been drinking together.
In the case of sexual offences against children, only half of them have a chance of ending in a conviction. More than 50% of such cases are withdrawn before they can be prosecuted.
The statistics do not reflect attempted rapes, but indecent assault dockets have increased by 1 132 to 8 815, compared to the previous year.
An analysis of 3 222 reported sexual offences against children younger than 12 shows that police often incorrectly recorded them as “indecent assault” because the victim’s age had “prevented penetration”.
“Many of these cases should actually have been registered as attempted rapes, a more serious charge than indecent assault,” the report said.
Analysis by the Crime Information Analysis Centre also shows that guilty verdicts were secured in only 15% of cases. Just more than half were withdrawn, mostly at the request of parents or guardians “often because the accused is a family member (sometimes the breadwinner) or a family friend”.
Almost 90% of child rape survivors knew their assailants and most attacks occurred in private homes. “The question is raised as to how conventional policing can prevent this and protect the young children of South Africa if not even the parents and guardians of these children are in a position to do so,” the annual report said.
Gareth Newham of the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR) told the Mail & Guardian that “social fabric” crimes such as murder and rape were harder to police than offences such as hijacking and theft, which are “fairly policeable”.
The police have been successful in dealing with hijacking and car-theft syndicates, while the figure for the use of firearms in crimes was gone up. This could mean that street-level criminals find it harder to move stolen vehicles and thus increasingly use their firearms in the commission of other crimes.
The report also said that drug and firearm trafficking, car theft and hijacking, organised commercial crime and corruption among public officials remain priority areas.
This week the police prided themselves on reducing serious crime, including murder. National police spokesperson Selby Bokaba told the M&G the R19-billion allocated to crime-fighting by the national Treasury has been money well spent.
Bokaba admitted the statistics are skewed in that there is under-reporting of some crimes and over-reporting of others. Malice or attempted insurance fraud can be the cause of over-reporting.
“The problem we have is that once a docket has been opened, even if the person later withdraws the case, it will be reflected in this [South African Police Service annual] report,” said Bokaba.
Police statistician Nkoshilo Seimela said the 1,3% drop in the murder rate is statistically insignificant, “but it is still a decrease”.
There is a “2% to 3%” margin for error in the murder statistics, he told the M&G. The margin for error in the reportage of other crimes is very hard to determine.
“Our study on rape showed that there was a 40% to 50% withdrawal rate,” said Seimela.
“Maybe that is because there is too much pressure on the victims to withdraw. Maybe that is because the perpetrator is a breadwinner and the family fears losing out on financial support.”
He said victim-survey studies, where heads of households are asked if anyone in their households has been a victim of a crime, are the most reliable form of establishing the extent of under-reporting.
But, Seimela said, “that is not the job of the police [statisticians]. We work only with reported crimes. If someone says there has been under-reporting, then they should prove it with a victim-survey study. Even then, we should always remember that statistics are about estimates.”
Bokaba said the next steps to take in fighting crime would be educating children about sexual violence, providing visible policing, and the confiscation of illegal firearms. This process, he said, has started.
Because so many crimes are committed by people using illicit firearms, Bokaba said, the first part of the strategy is to take them away from criminals.
According to the report, police confiscated 58 617 firearms, valued at just more than R21-million, over the year covered by the report.
“We have tightened the loopholes in the application and issuing of firearms,” he said. “Now we have psychological tests, interviews with relatives and spouses and a thorough background evaluation to ensure that only people who are fit to possess a firearm are granted licences.”
Newham said police stations should be focus areas for local communities, so that communities can drive policing strategies. Police must win the trust of communities by providing a more professional service and fighting corruption.
Newham finds “very valid” the SAPS’s reasoning that the increase in some crimes is due to communities realising that police do respond.
“An increase in the number of reported cases in certain crime categories does not necessarily mean that the actual incidence of crime is going up, but that the police are improving their response to crimes such as common assault, domestic violence, rape and sexual violence — cases that are generally under-reported.”
If the attempted murder rate has increased while murder has decreased, Newham said that was perhaps “because, with the increase of aggravated robbery, attempted murder charges are opened when people are injured”.
The report emphasised the need for community and civil society involvement. “Law enforcement on its own is not enough deal with crime.”