It may be early days, but it is now safe to say South Africans can look forward to riding the wave of a global recovery on the back of an economy that has weathered storms better than most.
This week three sets of figures supported a case for a radical interest rate cut, at least 2%, before the year is out. With every pundit in the media on his back and every bit of good news ratcheting up the pressure, Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni has little choice.
On Tuesday the broad-base money supply M3 was found to have eased, growing at 5,09% in the year to August, down from 7,25% in the year to July, and standing at its lowest rate since October 1993.
Then came the news that the producer price index (PPI) had beaten market expectations by rising only 0,2% in the year to August, compared to 1,5% in July. Equally encouraging was the trade surplus figure — R1,4-billion. This is down from R2,08-billion in July, but still in positive territory. The total surplus for the year stands at R15-billion.
Amid all this, the rand continued to gallop, clearing the key technical level of R7 to the dollar to reach its best in three years.
All this prompts the hope that when the world economy takes off, South Africa will be propelled to growth levels higher than the world average and may finally start chiselling away at the mountain of unemployment.
The recovery appears set to be led by the sector that epitomised gloom — information technology.
This week Bloomberg reported that mutual funds specialising in tech stocks had gained an average of 52% over the past year, while equity funds tracked by the wire service have risen by 22% over the same period. We are now being told of irrational pessimism around the bursting of the tech bubble. How quickly the tune changes.
Yet, as investors prepare to feast on the good times, it helps to absorb lessons of the recent past and remember the gnashing of teeth brought on by corporate failures and decimated pensions.
The first major lesson consumers can glean is an aversion to debt — but not risk. As someone who entered the job market in volatile and uncertain times, I would link this lesson closely to the notion that no one has a right to quality employment every day of his or her working life. The idea of job security is fast becoming an oxymoron, and opportunities are self-created.