South Africa’s big four banks should comfortably reach many of the targets set out in the recently released Financial Services Charter on Black Economic Empowerment (BEE), according to investment bankers Merrill Lynch.
It also believes the four banks are likely to have similar scores in terms of the scorecard in reaching their targets.
Expressing a mixed reaction to the charter, Merrill Lynch, however, feels the charter — which it says could have been more onerous — frustratingly lacks key details despite the considerable work that went into producing the substantial document.
But it says at least the announcement has reduced some uncertainty surrounding the charter.
“Its balanced scorecard places greater emphasis on ownership and control and empowerment funding (44% weighting) than we expected relative to access, procurement and staff demographics. We consider this mildly negative. Note, however, that ownership itself accounts for only 14% of the total score.
“In our opinion, investors are most concerned about empowerment ownership targets and prescribed lending. At first glance, the ownership targets are above our expectations, at 25% by 2010. Direct ownership should be 10%, while the remainder can be held indirectly through pension funds etc.
“Note that indirect holdings in the big four banks are already around 15%. The 10% direct holding is consistent with market expectations, in our view. We think that finding R14-billion in funding could prove challenging, however.
“The charter does not include specific empowerment financing targets, but this could exceed R75-billion (3,75% of total financial sector assets) over an undisclosed period. R50-billion is earmarked for infrastructure projects, low-income housing, developing agriculture and black SMEs, while R25-billion is for empowerment transactions.
“We are disappointed by the lack of detail here. For starters, the R75-billion is a preliminary estimate. Moreover, we will wait to see how the 50bn rand will be broken down, as some activities (low-income housing) are far higher risk than others (infrastructure projects.) Most of all, the fundamental issue of risk mitigation/sharing measures between government and the financial sector remains unanswered.
“Our impression is that the big four banks will probably achieve similar scores. In our opinion, they should attain many targets comfortably, including access to banking for LSM 1-5 customers, staff demographics and empowerment control.
“Lastly, some targets involve provisos. For instance, procurement targets appear to depend upon charters, which international suppliers are subject to, being established in other sectors.
“In our assessment, the charter’s costs include indeterminable credit costs, compliance costs, subsidising affordably priced banking access and some staff training expenses. At this stage, we do not think these will impact bank stocks’ earnings or investment cases materially.” – I-Net Bridge