Don’t look now but there is not a boiling war anywhere in Africa.
For the first time in years the continent that has become synonymous with conflict is enjoying a relative calm.
Last week Liberia’s interim government was sworn in. Sudanese peace talks, which appear to have a real chance of success, have been visited by United States Secretary of State Colin Powell.
Earlier this month the largest rebel group in Burundi, the CNDD-FDD, was drawn into that country’s transitional process.
Analysts, reluctant to hail a new dawn of peace in Africa, agree that the continent is the quietest it has been in five years.
They also concur that the north to south, east to west conflict of a decade ago is now confined to history.
However, even in the countries named as recent success stories, germs of serious problems lurk.
“If you’re looking for hot spots, go no further than Darfur in Sudan,” said Richard Cornwell of the Institute for Security Studies. “This province on the border with Chad is out of the limelight, but 100 people were killed there just the other day.”
Herman Hanekom of the Africa Institute accepts that there are not any hot wars in Africa. “Nevertheless there are some distinctly hot spots and the interior of Liberia cannot accurately be described as anything less than smouldering.”
Jan van Eck, of Pretoria University, returned from Burundi this week reporting that he had never seen the country so delicately balanced.
“The agreement with the CNDD-FDD is significant, but there is another camp solidifying against the whole Arusha process,” he said.
“The National Liberation Front [FNL] has completely rejected any negotiations with the transitional government and is becoming a magnet for the disaffected and frustrated,” said Van Eck of the largest rebel group still outside the peace process.
The shift towards peace on the continent began with the end of the wars in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Both countries are regional giants with the capacity to finance their own redevelopment.
Hanekom points out that tribal and factional problems in Ituri in the eastern DRC present a huge humanitarian challenge to the transitional government — and worse if these are not contained.
“I cannot see peace for Burundi until the FNL is included,” he said.
“Other areas I would describe as still smouldering include northern Uganda where the Lord’s Resistance Army holds sway and [Côte d’Ivoire], which I believe is still very delicately balanced.”
Cornwell said that Sierra Leone is by no means out of the woods. “If there is a region I’m worried about it is West Africa.”
Ross Herbert of the South African Institute for International Affairs said a number of countries in this region — most notably Gabon, Cameroon and Togo — are vulnerable because of leaders who have been in power for decades without preparing any successor.
Cornwell, adding Chad to this list, said: “Now oil has been discovered there is something to fight about. Any of these countries could erupt at any time if the political game changes or the military comes into play.”
Richard Dowden, the veteran British African analysts, told the BBC this week that in some instances peace might be no more than “a lull in the fighting — partly because of the exhaustion of the warring parties and partly because international attention flags as media attention drains away.
“If international attention diminishes the diplomatic effort that goes into peacemaking may come to an end and the promises of aid and reconstruction don’t get delivered,” said Dowden.
In its analysis declaring “there seems to be more light than darkness on the African scene”, the BBC listed South Africa’s emergence as a regional superpower as a positive factor.
Cornwell appreciates the value of South Africa using its diplomatic strength and troops to contain conflicts, but sees a danger in this ability being overestimated.
A real threat to stability with peace breaking out all over Africa is the limitation of troops to monitor and verify ceasefires and peace accords.
“In Sudan this month I was very surprised at the number of people I heard say: ‘The South Africans will do it.’ When I told them this was a myth, they said, ‘That’s not what the politicians tell us.'”
Military analysts agree that the troop commitment in Burundi and the DRC has exhausted South Africa’s capacity to send soldiers abroad.
South Africa, with 1 700 troops, forms the backbone of the African Union military force in Burundi. A similar number of South Africans are deployed with the United Nations forces in the DRC.
President Thabo Mbeki was recently persuaded by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to contribute to the UN force in Liberia.
His military advisers will tell him that this will have to be limited to a very small, specialist unit — at best a token presence.