/ 4 November 2003

The bigger picture

Much has been made of the fact that the eight World Cup quarterfinalists are the eight original members of the International Rugby Football Board (IRB). Not so much has been made of the fact that one team in the final eight has beaten each of the other seven in the space of the last 12 months.

That team is England, winners of the Six Nations Grand Slam and conquerors of the southern hemisphere giants on no less than five occasions between November 2002 and July this year. The results make salutary reading for those who have become too involved in the minutiae of this World Cup and are willfully blind to the bigger picture.

Here they are in order: England 31-28 New Zealand, England 32-31 Australia, England 53-3 South Africa, England 25-17 France, Wales 9-26 England, England 40-5 Italy, England 40-9 Scotland, Ireland 6-42 England, New Zealand 13-15 England, Australia 14-25 England.

You will note from these results that England rarely put teams away in the manner they did Uruguay last week. They do enough to win the game and leave the ritual humiliations to the Wallabies and All Blacks. The sole exception in the above list is the game at Twickenham against the Springboks. It will be many years before the stain of that performance is wiped from our national psyche.

There is also the point that England don’t play weak opposition very often. Those who snort derisively about the standard of the Six Nations may care to be reminded that the Springboks lost to Scotland last November on the same weekend that England were beating New Zealand.

Consider also the narrow win against Wales at the Millennium Stadium and then say that the latter side’s performance against the All Blacks on Sunday came as a bolt from the blue. It is a well-known fact that in most sporting codes all sides raise their games to play England, the historical oppressor.

It is worth bearing that in mind now that we have reached the business end of the tournament. Nobody (outside of England, of course) wants England to win. Hell, even the Springboks would be more popular winners of the William Webb-Ellis trophy than England. But not wanting them to win isn’t going to make it happen.

It is perfectly true that Clive Woodward’s men have been disappointing thus far, but in the two games where they were stretched – against the Springboks and Samoa – they lost the first hour and won the final quarter. Great sides do that, ordinary sides talk about how close they came, how the score line didn’t truly reflect the game and how they’ll beat England next time.

Well from now on there is no next time. In Brisbane on Sunday Wales will find out about the physical impossibility of playing above yourself two games running. They are in the same position that Samoa were when they played the Springboks last week and the score will probably be much the same, too.

Ditto Ireland against France. If Keith Wood’s men had beaten Australia last week it may have been a very different World Cup, but as it is, Ireland climbed to the top of the mountain seeking enlightenment only to find the hermit’s cave occupied by a drive through Macdonald’s.

Australia should have no problems against Scotland, the weakest of the last eight, which leaves us with the big imponderable – South Africa v New Zealand in Melbourne.

It is human nature to fear an event in the far distance. We have been speaking about the impossibility of a Springbok win for so long that the issues have become irrelevant. But now that the event is less than a week away there is a sudden tide of optimism.

Something similar happened ahead of the England game. In the final week beforehand, one-eyed nationalism took over from rugby rationalism. The result was lauded as a moral victory for the Boks. After all South Africa played better than hoped and England far worse.

There is a subtle difference ahead of the match against the All Blacks. This time the Boks really can win. They can claim to be the most improved side in the competition, finally welding a watertight defence to a competitive tight five. Put simply, it’s not easy to beat South Africa anymore.

England went through that rebuilding process about 15 years ago. It took a long time to create a competitive back line to complement the perennial quality of their forwards, but they finally got there about two years ago. Don’t believe anyone who tells you they are ready for a fall. They are much better than anyone at this tournament has given them credit for.

As for the Springboks, to misquote Churchill, it is not the end, or even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning. As for Rudolf Straeuli, he should remind himself of the old Chinese proverb: a journey of a thousand miles begins with a loose fan belt and a leaky radiator.