Renamo confidently expects to win the majority of the 33 municipalities it will contest in next week’s local elections. “No doubt about it,” says Renamo secretary general Vianna Magalhaes. “Campaigning has been going very well. Renamo’s only problem is financial. We have not got the money to mount the campaign we would have liked. Nevertheless, we are doing our best.
“What we are hearing from the people is that we can expect a very favourable result. We expect to win the majority of municipalities.
“These elections are all about reviewing the system of local government in Mozambique and restoring the dignity of the people.”
The poll is the second local elections in Mozambique’s history. Renamo boycotted the first local elections in 1998, claiming that the government intended to commit electoral fraud.
This action reduced the size of the poll to a paltry 14,5%, demonstrating once again the influence wielded by Renamo. It also handed the 33 mayors to the ruling Frelimo party.
The mayors are a particularly powerful group, having the authority to name their councillors.
Correspondents are focusing on Renamo’s bid to set matters straight in the northern port city of Beira.
There David Simango comes up against Frelimo’s Lourenco Djalma in the race for mayor. Simango — the son of Urens Simango, a revered local figure who disappeared after going into a Frelimo re-education centre — is a member of the Ndau tribe, as is Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama. Djalma is a Sena, a tribe that traditionally supports Frelimo.
However, locals say that the voting in Beira will be about the issues more than about history or tribe.
Beira epitomises the gap between Maputo and the rest of the country. The city has not benefited from the Beira corridor project with Zimbabwe because of the collapse of the latter’s economy.
What movement there has been along this road has increased the incidence of HIV/Aids — 15% of Beira’s adult population is infected.
Water lies in green stagnant pools around the city, but many of the residents do not have fresh water on tap in their homes. Residents have to carry buckets-full to their apartments.
Small wonder that Renamo fancies its chances. The province is a Renamo stronghold and contains more than half of the 19-million Mozambican population.
The benefits of the formidable economic growth that followed the end of civil war 11 years ago are not evident in the rural districts that house two-thirds of Mozambicans.
Thus the development of the capital that so impressed delegates to the African Union summit in July and draws increasing numbers of tourist to the country does not impress the people struggling to eke a living off the land. Renamo argues that the benefits of the surging growth are blocked largely by corruption in the capital.
In fact, the voice of the peasants will be mute in next week’s poll since most of the rural people are currently excluded from the local elections.
Renamo and Frelimo are still fighting over the system of second-tier government. These elections amount to a compromise involving mostly urban dwellers. Thus their outcome can provide only a limited indication of how Mozambicans will vote in their general election due next year.
Logistically the exercise has had problems. Lack of funding has hampered the operation of the Electoral Administrative Technical Secretariat responsible for voter education and for distributing registering material
There have been squabbles over the eligibility of candidates, most notably in Mocuba in the central Zambezia province.
There the Renamo candidate Jose Manteigas has been excluded by the National Election Commission for allegedly falsifying residence documents required to show eligibility to stand in a particular district.
Renamo have responded by naming three Frelimo candidates they say are guilty of similar offences.
The bitter rivalry between the main parties is evidenced in the dark threats from the ruling party that Renamo remains a violent rebel movement bent on taking power by whatever means it can.
According to Eduardo Serpa, writing for the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, Dhlakama is on record as saying he will form a government in 2004 “with or without fraud”.
The Renamo leader made it clear that “fraud” was synonymous with a Frelimo victory. Asked whether victory in local polls means a certain win the general election, Magalhaes said: “Why not?”
The local results might reflect very poorly the feelings of the vast rural population; nevertheless Renamo is confident that it has these bases covered for the big game next year.
In the 1999 presidential and legislative elections President Joachim Chissano drew 52,3% of the votes —4,6% more than Dhalakama.
Renamo holds 133 parliamentary seats to Frelimo’s 117.