South African-listed life insurer and financial services group Liberty (LGL) needs to use some of its excess capital, estimated to be as much as R2,5-billion, in order to improve its capital efficiency, according to global investment bank Merrill Lynch.
In a recent research report, Merrill Lynch analyst Stewart Rider says Liberty should either undertake a significant share buyback programme or declare a large special dividend in order to lower its level of cash and near-cash balances which, given the very low interest rate environment in South Africa, is proving to be a “significant drag” on returns for the group as a whole.
“Capital management is becoming critical, in our opinion,” writes Rider. “Even after taking into account the payment of the interim dividend, we still believe Liberty had too much capital at that period.
“Given its strong cash-generating properties, the group will likely be faced with even more at the end of the year. With a significant portion in cash and with interest rates at very low historical levels, we believe it is now time to put this capital to work or to give it back to shareholders.”
At the end of June, Liberty’s interim stage, the company held some R1,5-billion in cash and another R1,8-billion in fixed interest securities, very liquid assets.
According to Rider’s analysis, at least R2,2-billion of this could be returned to shareholders via share repurchases or a special dividend, with Merrill Lynch preferring a R2-billion share buyback, given that it estimates the company to be trading at a 10% discount to its embedded value.
This level of buyback would raise its embedded value per share by a further 1,3%.
“Assuming a mere R1,5-billion in special dividend, we estimate that the return on equity (ROE) on an embedded value earnings basis improves from a current forecast level of 26,1% to 31%, thereby increasing Liberty’s theoretical value by 21%,” Rider writes.
“We do not see this as rocket science at all, but just rather good capital management. It has happened in the past with Liberty where, to their credit, they have reduced the amount of capital on the business from an 18-times capital adequacy requirement (CAR) cover to a current estimated 2,8-times that of CAR — we believe it is time to get moving again.”
Merrill Lynch has maintained its “buy” rating on Liberty, with a 12-month share price objective of R65 rand from a current trading price of R52,50.
However, it has revised its 2003 earnings estimates lower, from R4 per share to R3,43 per share.
As a result, the I-Net Bridge consensus earnings estimate for Liberty from seven analysts has fallen from R3,71 per share to R3,53 per share.
Analysts generally regard embedded value, rather than earnings, to be the most pertinent measure of value for life insurers. – I-Net Bridge