Still in power, but worried

The people have long grown impatient and it is starting to show. African National Congress branches have dwindled from the thousands the party had 10 years ago as people’s appetite for politics has diminished.

But the party still has by the far the most organised political machinery. It still has more branches than other political party but far fewer members. Having just survived the 2009 election where its majority was just around 50%, a drastic drop from the 66% majority it achieved in the first democratic election in 1994, 1999 and 2004, the current ANC leadership is pondering its options.

Does it slam hard on the growing mass action led by the social movements, which now fancy that they have a real chance to topple this government?

Or does it seek to co-opt some of the influential elements in that left, most of whom were former members of the ANC anyway?

The ANC has commissioned its research unit to analyse the political trends and part of that will look at whether there is any threat at all from the right. Here the Democratic Alliance has, contrary to expectations, expanded its base and a number of conservative, middle-class black people are throwing in their lot with the party previously perceived as a white dinosaur.

Almost like the Israelites on the way to the promised land of Egypt, quite a few black people (old ones of course) are hankering after the old South Africa, saying “We had no votes but at least we had jobs.”

The DA, quite aware of this, capitalises, saying the ANC has failed in over 20 years to implement a sustainable job creation strategy.

For its part, the ANC is amazed at the small electoral returns it is receiving, despite the economy growing at more than 5% in the past few years and a few thousand jobs opportunities being created.

Maybe the successes and the messages of hope are not being communicated sufficiently to the public. The organisation’s czars rack their brains: should the ANC take a more active role to control of the SABC as some supporters are suggesting? Or should the ANC buy its own TV channel or its own newspapers?

But it is the left that has the ANC worried. Now, more than ever, the projected split of the ANC-South African Communist Party-Congress of South African Trade Unions alliance is imminent.

Over the years the ANC and its alliance members have lost prominent members who have joined up with old social movements such as the Anti-Privatisation Forum, the Landless People’s Movement and others, which have mushroomed to draw in the unemployed who mass not only around their joblessness, but to also push for electricity, water and housing. The economy may be growing, but income inequality remains stubbornly high.

Within the townships, the social movements are growing at an alarming rate, given the thousands of people they are able to pull in to their now routine marches and rallies.

Although no longer active in politics, it is significant that ANC hero and veteran Winnie Madikizela-Mandela has thrown her weight behind these movements, saying they are the conscience of an ANC government.

Having always lacked political clout and a clear political programme, the social movements have now made sufficient noise and drawn in enough intellectuals to attract international attention.

Now constantly interviewed on international TV networks, it is rumoured that some are even qualifying for international funding by foreign governments, a spectre with all sorts of negative implications for this ANC government.

The ANC realises that the post-colonial experiences of Zambia, Kenya and Zimbabwe are about to play themselves out again in South Africa, where, 20 years into their rule, the wheels came off the liberation movements.

Will the ANC president go the unceremonious way of Kenneth Kaunda, Daniel arap Moi and Robert Mugabe? But in public President Jacob Zuma is confident that he can crack success in his final term.

Recently interviewed, he told journalists that two years ago his party celebrated 100 years of active existence.

“The strength of the ANC is that it has always managed to renew itself and adapt itself to prevailing conditions. It took us about 80 years to achieve democracy, but when we did it was an overwhelming victory. I cannot see any factors that will destroy the ANC now.”

Dream Cabinet 2014