The number of smokers is expected to decline in rich nations but will rise in developing countries by 2010, according to a report published on Thursday by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
The report entitled Projections of Tobacco Production,Consumption and Trade to the Year 2010 estimates that the number of smokers worldwide will grow at an annual rate of about 1,5%, up from 1,1-billion in 1998 to around 1,3-billion in 2010.
Despite the overall increase in tobacco consumption, the report expects demand to increase at a lower rate than in the past.
Consumption per adult will likely decline by about 10% by 2010. Individual consumption will probably fall to 1,4kg per year, compared to 1,6kg in 2000.
Anti-smoking campaigns, income growth, increased taxation and slower population growth are considered the main reasons for the decline in tobacco demand in developed countries. Consumption is expected to reach 2,05m tons in 2010, down 10% from the 2,23-million tons consumed in 1998.
However, consumption in developing countries is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1,7% between 1998 and 2010.
Consumption is expected to hit 5,09-million tons by 2010, up from 4,2-million in 1997/99.
By 2010, the share of developed countries in world tobacco consumption is projected to drop from 34% in 1998 to 29%. Conversely, the share of consumption in developing countries will rise to 71%.
Cigarette smoking is the most prevalent type of tobacco consumption, with manufactured and hand-rolled cigarettes accounting for about 85% of all tobacco consumed worldwide.
With around 320-million smokers, China is the world’s biggest cigarette consumer. India is the second most important tobacco consumer. Total demand for tobacco in India, where tobacco is chewed or used in hand-rolled bidis, is likely to increase, but more slowly than in the previous decades.
Consumption is expected to rise slightly in Latin America and the Near East while demand in Africa is expected to grow at a record 3,5% annually.
The world’s biggest tobacco producers are China, India, Brazil, the United States, Turkey, Zimbabwe and Malawi who jointly produce more than 80% of the world’s tobacco. China alone accounts for more than 35% of world production.
Tobacco leaf production worldwide is projected to reach more than 7,1-million tons in the year 210, up from 5,9-million tons in 1997/99, but lower than the record tobacco production of 1992 of 7,5-million tons. – Sapa-DPA