The decision by the oldest Burundian rebel group to start talks with President Domitien Ndayizeye is more than a light at the end of the tunnel for that war-torn country.
Before emerging into daylight, however, Burundi faces problems of implementing the ceasefire. This in turn poses tough questions for South Africa and other members of the African Mission in Burundi (Amib).
Until now Agaton Rwasa, the leader of the Force for National Liberation (FNL), which regards itself as the original Hutu liberation movement, has refused to speak to anyone in charge except Tutsis.
This is because Rwasa maintains that, the Arusha powersharing agreement notwithstanding, Tutsis, who constitute 13% of Burundi’s population, still hold the reins of military and political power.
His decision to speak to the Hutu president, whom he has previously dismissed as a puppet, is a factor of the military stalemate in Burundi.
With the larger Hutu rebel movement — the National Council for the Defence of Democracy/Forces for the Defence of Democracy — now in the transitional process, the FNL has found it more difficult to get supplies.
However, even with the CNDD/ FDD soldiers of Pierre Nkurunziza ranged against him, Rwasa’s men have managed to stage daring raids on the capital Bujumbura.
The FNL was accused, probably wrongly, of killing Papal Nuncio Michael Courtney in an ambush on December 29.
This tragic incident forced the rebels to make contact with the government at least to deny involvement in the killing of a man with whom they had regular contact.
In the process, representatives of both sides agreed on exploratory talks to end the conflict that has cost more than 300 000 lives during the past decade. Rwasa insists that those talks, to be held in Belgium or Holland next week, will be with the ”Hutu element” of the transitional government.
His movement is among those that likens the balance of power in Burundi, held by a minority, to that of apartheid South Africa.
The FNL believes it can only negotiate meaningfully with Tutsis just as the African National Congress would not have dealt with anyone but the white government.
Conditions aside, South African Deputy President Jacob Zuma, who has mediated the settlement in Burundi, welcomed the latest development and expressed the hope it would advance the peace process.
South Africa is reviewing its costly involvement in Burundi. Military sources say that it could soon withdraw at least one of the two battalions it has committed to Amib.
The African mission was never meant to be a long-term operation. It was designed to create conditions for a fully-fledged United Nations peacekeeping force to step in.
Zuma made an unsuccessful bid to get the UN to step in after Nkurunziza’s forces started disarming in November.
However, the world organisation is adamant that the blue helmets will not move in until there is a comprehensive ceasefire — and that was clearly not the case with the FNL revving the capital at will.
The cantonment of the CNDD/FDD forces is experiencing disturbing delays, although Burundian and Amib officials insist the process is proceeding.
In his New Year’s message Ndayizeye said the demobilisation of the rebels and the movement of their commanders into the army leadership would be completed by last Monday.
Military officials said that the delay was not a disaster. ”The main thing is the process is under way,” said Burundian General Germain Niyoyankana.
Analysts say the problem is as much financial as anything.
South Africa is picking up the lion’s share of the $123-million peacekeeping bill, with only a slim hope of recovering this from the African Union.
This is why Zuma is pressing hard not to have to commit for another year when the Amib mandate comes up for renewal in March. Before then, the process faces more financial deadlines.
Later this month the United States has to decide whether to continue financing the Ethiopian contingent of Amib.
In February Britain has to make a similar decision regarding the Mozambicans in Burundi. Rwasa will be under great pressure next week to give substance to his exploratory talks with Ndayizeye and to negotiate a place in the transitional government without delay.