The man most likely to succeed Michael Schumacher as formula one (F1) champion this year is Finland’s Kimi Raikkonen.
Any analysis of driving performance last season, in terms of extracting the most out of the car versus the number of mistakes made, would put Raikkonen at the top of the class — and that includes Schumacher, who made three crucial mistakes in last year’s three season openers, all of which cost him victory, and raced some mistake-ridden races at Hockenheim, Silverstone and the season finale in Japan, where he just squeaked to take the championship.
But the thing about Schumacher is that he never gives up. Once again this makes him a serious contender for top honours in 2004, granted Ferrari is still up to the task.
Both McLaren and Williams have been running their new cars — the MP4-19 and FW26 respectively —since early January (McLaren even earlier, in fact) and both have been devastatingly quick in the test runs.
Raikkonen and Jean Pablo Montoya’s teammate Ralf Schumacher traded fastest laps at Jerez in Spain, setting the fastest times ever recorded there.
Ferrari is due to launch its F2004 challenger on January 31, and team boss Jean Todt said that it was crucial for the team’s hopes this year to have the new car race-ready in time for 2004 Federation Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) F1 World Championship in Melbourne on March 7.
Until recently, Ferrari was able to run the season’s previous challenger with the confidence that is was technologically ahead. But last season, with Michelin tyres providing a competitive edge to McLaren, Williams and Renault while the Ferrari struggled in hot weather on Bridgestone rubber, it was difficult to gauge which was the superior machine of the season.
The tyres are, of course, an integral factor of any car’s package — the teams’ designers work hand in hand with the tyre manufacturers to tailor their cars’ chassis, suspension and aerodynamic elements to the tyres’ performance. Given that Ferrari won a total of eight races, with Williams winning four, McLaren twice and Renault and Jordan each scoring one victory, it was still the superior package.
Last season Renault was the up-and-coming team, with a sublime chassis that was the kindest of all to its tyres, and which more than made up for the engine’s reputed power deficiency of some 50 horsepower (compared to BMW).
Part of the Renault package was its wide-angle, 110Þ V10 engine, keeping weight low in the car, which is where you want it in a 4G corner. But last season Renault finally admitted that the configuration was not the answer in terms of horsepower and this season, it will be running a new car with a conventional, more upright V10 (some reports even suggest a very narrow-angle V10 of just 72Þ spacing between cylinder banks).
One thing is certain — Renault knows how to build winning F1 engines. The French firm was dominant from 1991 to 1997 in terms of horsepower when it outraced the likes of Williams and Benetton to world championships with monotonous regularity. Apart from the Hungarian win last season, the team looked a likely winner on a few occasions. Its drivers, Fernando Alonso and Jarno Trulli, are both phenomenal.
But a new engine in a new car? It would not be surprising if 2004 is a formative year for Renault, in which case look to BAR (British-American Racing) and Jenson Button to challenge for victory this season.
The new car looks good and runs hard, and what’s more, BAR will be on Michelin rubber this season, which the smart money says is still going to have the edge over Bridgestone.
In new signing Takuma Sato, Button will have a solid number two. Not to forget that he outraced Ralf Schumacher when the pair were at Williams in 2000.
As for the other team likely to make a strong leap, it has to be Saube, refreshed with a brand-new mega-million-dollar wind tunnel at its Swiss base and strengthened by one of the best driving talents in F1, Giancarlo Fisichella. Fisichella believes he can score regular top six finishes for Saube this year, and there are many who agree with him.
That leaves Toyota, Jaguar, Jordan and Minardi to scrap over the rest. Toyota should be stronger, with the ever improving Cristiano da Matta and Olivier Panis as solid peddlers. Mark Webber, as Jaguar’s lead driver, was one of the best drivers last season, but not much is expected from the car.
Nor is much expected from the underfunded Jordans or the perennial, also-ran Minardis.
But then, things can change so quickly in F1, just as they do in all the great sports.