Western Cape Premier and New National Party leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk has emerged as the most popular premier candidate in that province in a Markinor poll conducted in January/February — the results of which were released on Wednesday.
Likewise in KwaZulu-Natal, the African National Congress’s top-ranking candidate for the legislature, provincial minister of transport S’bu Ndebele, won the popularity stake in the poll.
Significantly, official opposition Democratic Alliance candidates — both white — emerged strongest among white voters in both provinces. Its candidate in KwaZulu-Natal was also the most popular among Indians.
Fieldwork for the poll was undertaken from January 29 to February 20 in personal interviews in the homes of 680 respondents in KwaZulu-Natal and 455 in the Western Cape and were deemed representative on race, gender, working status, urban and rural spread and demographic features.
The poll focused on the two provinces where the ruling African National Congress can’t be assured of an overall majority.
In a statement by Markinor’s Mari Harris and Anneke Greyling, they said the NNP leader ”is the most popular candidate for the premiership in the Western Cape with a third [32%] of the support”.
Van Schalkwyk’s coalition partner, ANC provincial leader Ebrahim Rasool, came in a close second with 30%. DA provincial leader Theuns Botha trailed in third place with 22%.
In KwaZulu-Natal, Ndebele got the most support with almost half of eligible voters (46%) thinking that he should be the province’s next premier. The incumbent premier, the Inkatha Freedom Party’s Lionel Mtshali, was supported by just more than a quarter (27%) of eligible voters, and current economic affairs provincial minister Roger Burrows, the DA candidate, trailed with 9%.
Markinor noted that although the election of premiers is a function of the provincial legislatures and premiers are not elected by direct vote, the election campaign in the Western Cape, in particular, has largely taken on the nature of a premier’s campaign.
”This is particularly relevant given that the ANC/NNP coalition government will only decide on a NNP or ANC premier following the election.”
The pollsters commented that in KwaZulu-Natal ”it is likely that the IFP and the DA will work together and the question is whether their joint efforts will be strong enough to stem the ANC tide”.
In KwaZulu-Natal Ndebele got only 2% of white support and Burrows got 56%. Ndebele, in contrast, got 55% of black support and Burrows got only 1% of black support. Mtshali got 17% of white support and 29% of black support.
Among Indians — a pivotal constituency in that province — Burrows emerged strongest with 38% followed by Mtshali with 18% and Ndebele with 17%.
In the Western Cape Van Schalkwyk got the lowest support of the three top candidates among black voters with 6%. Botha got slightly more with 7% and Rasool got a whopping 83% — in contrast with just 3% of white support. Van Schalkwyk got 18% of white support and Botha got 54%.
Van Schalkwyk was popular in the pivotal coloured constituency with 47% to Rasool’s 27% and Botha’s 10%. — I-Net Bridge
Special Report: Elections 2004