Zanu-PF will be holding its elective national congress in December. It is this congress — it is hoped — that will settle the critical succession issue within this organisation and, by implication, the future president of Zimbabwe.
But Zanu-PF is constituted by various interest groups that are vying for control and eminence of the organisation. Added to this, is the fact that Zanu-PF is a by-product of a marriage between two former Zimbabwean liberation movements, Zanu and Zapu, which had different political traditions and ideological affinities. Tribal affinities and regional sensibilities also play themselves out in this marriage since the Shona constitute the base for the former Zanu and the Ndebele are seen as a citadel for the former Zapu.
These tribal differences are complicated by the fact that within the Shona people there are the majority Karanga, and the dominant Zezuru — from whom Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe comes and who are also positioning themselves for the control of the organisation.
There is a feeling among the former Zapu members that the opportunity has risen for them to take the leadership of Zanu-PF. Zapu candidates for the leadership of Zanu-PF are likely to include Vice-President and septuagenarian Joseph Msika, although his presidential candidacy may be ruled out by his age and health.
Another Zapu candidate could be John Nkomo, the phlegmatic national chairperson of Zanu-PF and the third-most senior member of the organisation. Other candidates could include former home affairs minister and Zipra intelligence chief Dumiso Dabengwa, High Commissioner to South Africa Simon Khaya Moyo, and politburo member Joshua Malinga.
By virtue of holding the position of national chairperson and having served in the Presidium, Nkomo is seen as best placed to be the next successor. Dabengwa has considerable support from the army and the war veterans. Moyo is seen as the natural follower to the late leader of Zapu, Joshua Nkomo, who gave him his political acumen. Moyo’s rapport with political power in South Africa also stands him in good stead.
Malinga, a former mayor of Bulawayo, is seen as a confirmed tribalist who always seeks to cater for the interests of the Ndebele people. He stands little chance of securing the position.
There are rumours circulating that if the succession debate in Zanu-PF is not decided soon, former Zapu members may break away from the organisation as the longer it drags out the dimmer their chances of succeeding to the highest post in the land.
Possible candidates for succession from within the ranks of Zanu-PF include Emmerson Mnangagwa, secretary for administration and Speaker for Parliament; Sydney Sekeramayi, Minister of Defence; Didymus Mutasa, secretary for external relations; Nicholas Goche, Minister for Security; and retired general Vitalis Zvinavashe.
Mnangagwa is viewed as the heir apparent since he is seen as a confidante of President Robert Mugabe. Their relationship dates back to Zimbabwe’s struggle for independence. He wields considerable influence in the army and is seen as an astute politician who will not undo the gains of the land reform programme. His shortcoming is that he was seen as a driving force of the post independence onslaught on a Zapu base in what came to be known as the infamous Gukurahundi (wild storm). Zapu supporters were brutally pulverised during the attack.
The fact that the United Nations identified him as being involved in the ”illegal exploitation” of the natural resources of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to fund the Zimbabwean war effort in that country — and to enrich individuals — may count against Mnangagwa. Also, his knowledge of the economy is scant. A new leader will have to reinvigorate investor confidence and Mnangagwa may not be fit for such a task.
Sekeramayi enjoys the support of the Zezuru clan that controls much of the economic activity in the country. He is an ally of the first commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, General Solomon Mujuru. The latter is a key political power broker whose influence in the army is only second to that of Mugabe. He is seen as flexible, of intellectual disposition and an astute diplomat. However, his role in the Gukurahundi, as the then minister of security, may count against him.
Mutasa is a long-serving secretary for administration of Zanu who believes the time has come for a leader to be elected into a critical position from the Manyika people. Edgar Tekere, the former secretary general of Zanu who broke away to form the Zimbabwe Unity Movement, comes from Mutasa’s Manyika clan. That Tekere has been welcomed back into the Zanu-PF army provides more impetus to Mutasa’s political ambitions. Goche does not command visible grassroots support — his Achilles heel. In fact, the likelihood is that he might give his support to Sekeramai.
Zvinavashe commands the support of the crucial Masvingo province. He has inherited the largely Karanga constituency from the late vice-president Simon Muzenda. His struggle credentials are impeccable and he has the support of the war veterans.
Thami ka Plaatjie is former secretary general of the Pan Africanist Congress and senior manager for strategy and policy coordination at the National Development Agency, and Skhumbuzo Ndiweni is former Zanu-PF, Bulawayo Province, secretary for publicity