Past the halfway mark in the series and Springbok coach Jake White will be hoping fervently that the old saw about cream rising to the top holds true in the Super 12. If so it means that the three South African sides occupying positions three to five on the log are the real deal and not some kind of optical illusion.
It is certainly fair to concede that the two teams above the South African triumvirate have nothing left to prove. After losing their opening two matches the Crusaders have come through the field in the same majestic way that Yard Arm strolled to victory in the Met at Kenilworth last week.
And ultimately it is the quality of last week’s encounter between the Crusaders and the Brumbies that ought to keep White’s feet on the ground. In defeat the Brumbies scored four tries and in injury time they were still putting together the multiphase moves that have become their trademark in what turned out to be a vain search for a second bonus point.
As well as the Crusaders played in administering a second defeat to the Australian side, it is quite conceivable that the 47-28 score line might have been reversed if the fixture had been played in Canberra. It is also not being unpatriotic to suggest that this could easily have been a dress rehearsal for what would be a third final between these two sides, both of whom have set the standard for what is expected of a successful Super 12 team.
On the face of things, then, it’s likely to be a grim week for the Sharks in Durban. Kevin Putt’s men host the Crusaders. Putt was playing for, rather than coaching, the team when the Sharks recorded their only win over the Kiwis way back in 1996. Since then they have a solitary draw and six defeats to ponder.
The last time the two met in Durban the heartless boot of Andrew Mehrtens decided the game in the dying minutes as the Sharks butchered a game they should have won easily, going down 34-37. But that is what the Crusaders tend to do when they travel; give their opponents hope and then win at the death.
Why should this week’s encounter be any different? Even Putt admitted to doubts about his own side’s ability during the week. He said: ‘There has been no faulting the team spirit and commitment, but how good are we really? The Crusaders have just beaten a form team like the Brumbies by 20 points, and that has to say something.
”They are a team on the rise and this will be the big test for us. If we get past them then we will know we are contenders. Either way we will know.â€
And actually, if it is a defeat it will be the manner of it that will determine the immediate future of the team. Written off pre-season, the Sharks have defied so many expectations that it is tempting to just let them get on with delighting their fans. But Putt knows better than anyone else that his team has mixed the brilliant with the woeful since the tournament began, and a bit of both can be expected on Saturday.
Whatever happens to the Sharks, however, at least they have five further home games to look forward to. In the Antipodes, the Stormers and the Bulls now have to prove that a respective 66% and 50% win ratio from six games is not as good as it gets.
History suggests that the first and last matches of a tour by South African franchises are the most likely to be won. The Bulls beat the Hurricanes in their first match overseas last year, while the Stormers produced their most convincing rugby of the year in beating the Waratahs in Sydney prior to boarding the plane back home.
Both performances were lauded from afar, but the harsh fact of the matter is that the Bulls earned just one further point from their next three matches and the Stormers’ five points against the Waratahs were their only ones of a miserable tour.
It is now the time of the season when management’s sponsored cell-phones are used as much for their calculator function as anything else. Last year the Brumbies got into the semifinals with 31 points, the lowest ever, bar the Sharks’ 30 in 1997. The level-pegging aspect of the current log, where two points separate nine teams, suggests that it will be low again this year, but how low?
If it is 31 then the Stormers need 12 points, the Bulls 13 to make the last four. It goes without saying, then, that four or five of those points this weekend would ease the task tremendously. The Stormers look a better bet against the Reds in Brisbane than the Bulls against the Blues in Albany, but the way this tournament has developed has made a fool of predictors. Expect the unexpected.