The African National Congress was aiming for three-thirds of the vote and nine out of nine provinces. In the end they had to settle for two-thirds and seven and a half provinces.
By late on Thursday, with just under 77% of the national vote in, the ANC had secured 68,12% of the vote.
In the Western Cape, the ANC had 40,19% of the provincial vote and its coalition partner, the New National Party 10,16%. This gives them a razor-thin majority in the province. The Democratic Alliance had secured 31, 42% of the poll.
With the large vote secured by the ANC in the province, the grasp of NNP leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk on the premiership looked increasingly shaky.
There is an increasing sentiment in the Western Cape ANC, and a private realisation among NNP officials that it would be unfeasible for the NNP to continue holding the premiership as it did not bring enough votes to the table. There was an understanding that the biggest political party would hold the premiership, one provincial ANC official said.
While ”tough and hard” negotiations are expected to start in the next few days, there is little doubt that the cooperation agreement remains on the cards.
”The relation of cooperation will continue, but we have always said we’ll await final results before discussions are started” ANC election coordinator Steyn Speed said.
Asked about the possibility of the NNP losing the premiership, the party’s secretary general Darryl Swanepoel said: ”It is really too early to say except to say there will be a coalition government.”
But pending discussions could mean that Van Schalkwyk’s political future is now in the hands of President Thabo Mbeki. If the ANC is to obtain the premiership — ANC provincial leader Ebrahim Rasool is said to be in the forefront — it would be politically difficult for the NNP’s national leader to serve under an ANC provincial leader. Speculation is rife that Van Schalkwyk could be offered a Cabinet post, albeit a junior one, such as the arts and culture portfolio.
Much of the ANC breakthrough has been ascribed to a successful election campaign aimed at breaking down the traditional hostility among many of the coloured voters, the largest constituency among the Western Cape’s 2,2-million registered voters. And results from the completed rural municipalities showed the ANC fared well in the hinterlands, too.
”The indications are good that we will remain the biggest party. [But] we have learnt to remain humble in the Western Cape,” said Rasool.
However, this time round the ANC has a partner, the NNP, to secure the provincial majority. Should the ANC at the end of the counting process not have secured an improvement over its 39% polling, the NNP may use its 11% support as leverage for the premiership in the upcoming discussions. The NNP has seen its support decimated from the 38,39% levels of 1999. The only rural area where it fared well was in Prince Albert in the Karoo. A 50% voter turnout among the 119 000 registered voters in Mitchells Plain, a key urban NNP heartland, saw the result split four ways. The NNP won working-class areas like Tafelsig, according to results available at the time of going to press, but other areas were split between the ANC, DA and Independent Democrats.
And the ID had overtaken the NNP in popularity in places like Swellendam, where it scored 10% against the NNP’s 8,3%.
Senior NNP officials conceded that white NNP voters had left the party in large numbers for the DA. But they put on a brave face, saying the results so far were in line with various poll predictions in the run-up to the vote.
Meanwhile, the DA said it took heart from the fact that it had done better in many parts of the province than in the December 2000 poll. There could still be shifts once all the Cape Town metropole results were in, said DA provincial spokesperson Craig Morkel.
However, Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) officials expected results from township voting stations to come in last; election day was marked by long queues and in many cases counting only started after 2am.
And the ANC has traditionally fared well in these township areas.
In KwaZulu-Natal, with 72,22% of the vote in, the Inkatha Freedom Party had 37,86% of the provincial ballot, the DA 11,49% and the ANC 42,36%. This opens the way for the formation of an opposition coalition to be formed to keep the ANC out of the provincial government — unless the IFP decides to try and negotiate its way back into the national Cabinet.
IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi has admitted that he is uncertain about his political future because relations between the ANC and the IFP are ”in pieces”. He told the Mail & Guardian on Wednesday that it is ”impossible” that he will be invited back into the Cabinet. There is also a growing likelihood that the IFP will reject the election results in KZN to give itself a negotiating tool.
”If a coalition between the ANC and the IFP isn’t formed then contesting the results may be Buthelezi’s strategy to give him negotiating power,” said Adam Habib, the director of democracy and governance at the Human Sciences Research Council.
Based on the results, the likeliest scenario is an ANC/IFP coalition under an IFP premiership, say most analysts. This could ensure a place for Buthelezi in the Cabinet but whether he accepts this is not a foregone conclusion.
A second scenario is that Buthelezi will move to the opposition benches both at provincial and national level buttressing his alliance with the DA. This would please Tony Leon because if the IFP and ANC rekindle their partnership it could be at the expense of his nuptial with Buthelezi.
But ”our arms are open to the IFP to form a coalition”, said Smuts Ngonyama, the head of the ANC’s presidency. ”However, there are issues that we have to deal with first because the position of the IFP at the moment is completely anti-ANC as a result of its partnership with the DA.”
Buthelezi blames the floor-crossing debacle last year for ”ruining” the relationship between the IFP and the ANC, he said. Some people say that he saw this as an act of perfidy by the ANC and that drove the IFP and the DA into each other’s arms.
The Coalition for Change became a pseudonym for survival. ”The IFP provided the DA with a broad-based black constituency and the DA gave the IFP a national ticket,” said Habib.
”The ANC will invite the IFP into a coalition out of pure political necessity, not by choice, because it is unlikely to win the province by an outright majority,” said Aubrey Matshiqi, an independent political analyst.
Key to the ANC’s strategy if it invites the IFP to form a coalition may be the realisation that exclusion prompts rebellion and inclusion breeds compliance.
According to Chris Landsberg, the director of the Centre for Policy Studies, the ANC ”should be very concerned about the exceptional drop in NNP support. For this and other reasons it is likely to reach out to the IFP. However, this invitation will not extend to the IFP’s friend [the DA].”
Protas Madladla, an independent political analyst, said that the results in the province ”are so close that the IFP and the ANC are going to be forced to speak to one another for the well-being of KZN”.
Matshiqi believes that there is a growing likelihood that the IFP will reject the election results. ”Top-level IFP leadership have accused the IEC of partiality. The fact that they are on the attack may mean that they will not accept the poll’s findings.”
There seems to be a general consensus that the IFP will only enter a coalition with the ANC if it is offered the premiership.
”The IFP claims that it represents the Zulu people, but if it doesn’t control the province, that makes a real mockery of the party,” said Habib.
Madladla disagrees saying that the ANC’s pinnacle is to hold the premiership in the province and it is unlikely that it will forfeit that. ”This also offers a tidy solution for shifting [Jacob] Zuma out of the deputy presidency,” says Habib. However, most people say that Zuma would regard this as a demotion.
But if the IFP nicks the premiership, Landsberg believes that either Lionel Mtshali will again be crowned political king of the province or Buthelezi will dethrone him. For a man with his amount of princely pride however, ”there is little prospect that Buthelezi would even contemplate the premiership of KwaZulu-Natal irrespective of the roll of the dice”, said Kiru Naidoo, a political analyst at the Durban Institute of Technology.
If the ANC keeps the premiership close to its chest, S’bu Ndebele, leader of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, is preening himself for he position. But, say experts, this may be slightly presumptuous.
”Mbeki realises that he needs a premier who has good relations with both the ANC and the IFP, someone who is not tainted by the conflict in the province and someone who can reduce the political temperatures without losing respect. Ndebele doesn’t fit that profile,” said Matshiqi.
Ngonyama was tight-lipped about the premiership, saying it would be left open for negotiation with the IFP.
However, he said ”in an ideal world” the IFP should have disbanded when the ANC was unbanned, which would have prevented the ongoing conflict in KwaZulu-Natal where the IFP and the ANC ”share the same base”.
Buthelezi’s only other option is to straddle the awkward divide between his traditionalist party and the DA as the official opposition in the province (and nationally, if the DA will have him). However, ”I can’t imagine Buthelezi playing second fiddle to Leon and I can’t imagine Leon having the foresight to give the leadership of the opposition to Buthelezi, even though being deputy of a national bloc [rather than leader of a white party] would make him more powerful,” said Habib.
Political analyst Dr Vincent Maphai says the elections have done little to shake up the political landscape. Referring to the ANC and the DA he commented that both parties had retained their core constituencies and made little impact on new territories.
”It was very important for symbolic reasons for the ANC to go to working-class areas and speak to them during campaigning.
But both the DA and ANC know that such campaigning will not translate into significant electoral shifts. They must still win the trust of these new communities.
”Some whites still regard the ANC as terrorists who cannot be trusted, while some black people still want to know where Leon was when they were in the trenches.”
Maphai said the elections had marked the death of the NNP as well as the ”radical” parties such as the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania, Socialist Party of Azania and Azapo. ”This marks that the centre is getting stronger, what is called philosophical conversion on major issues.”
He said he was disappointed that there were no major issues that divided the parties during campaigning.
The ANC has also secured the North West province, Limpopo and Mpumalanga with well over 80% of the vote.
In the Eastern Cape and the Free State the ANC secured more than 75% of the provincial vote, while in the Northern Cape and Gauteng, it received more than 60% of the ballot.