We are in uncharted waters. By week nine of the Super 12 we are usually resigned to the notion of an Antipodean super-race contesting the final stages of the competition, with just one South African franchise holding on grimly to a mid-table position.
But this year three of our four sides have genuine chances of a semifinal spot and we are being force-fed optimism in place of the usual bile.
Only the dismal showing of the Bulls, who conceded a half-century of points against the Blues last week, seemed to have a direct link to past miseries. Even the Cats won, for heaven’s sake, albeit in the worst game by far of the 43 played to date.
The Stormers seem to at least be on nodding terms with the concept of winning while playing badly and the Sharks have emerged from the chrysalis of quiet achievement to put on butterfly wings of proud beauty. What’s going on?
Maybe 2003 was the nadir. The darkest hour is just before dawn and all that guff. South African rugby is busy reinventing itself and against all odds the 2004 season might turn out to be the best since 1997. Which is not to say that anything can be taken for granted and it is in fact quite conceivable that after winning three out of four last week our teams could lose three out of four this time around. The Bulls, for instance, cannot help but be affected by the surgical precision with which Carlos Spencer carved them up last week in Albany.
In the whole history of the Super 12 you can count the number of Bulls wins in Australia and New Zealand on the fingers of one hand. It is therefore likely that defeat against the Reds in Brisbane this week could spell the end of the Bulls’ semifinal hopes, given that they are highly unlikely to beat the Crusaders in a fortnight’s time.
While the Stormers are flying high after hanging on to a one-point victory over the Reds, they need to keep winning to make the semis. That will be harder against the Blues this week in the likely absence of Schalk Burger, who turned 21 this week and will presumably find space for the key of the door to hang alongside his many man of the match awards.
Burger is the real deal; able to dominate in adult rugby the way he did in age group games. Take him out of the mix and the Stormers lose 50% of their effectiveness in both attack and defence. With him the Blues are beatable; without him it will be a case of looking for bonus points, rather than a win.
Meanwhile in Durban the Sharks finally have a chance to pick up some easy points. After a fine start to the season the Chiefs have reverted to their normal designation of cannon fodder and were awful against the Cats at Ellis Park. It is an oft-repeated mantra that there are no easy games in the Super 12, but if the Sharks are indeed semifinal material this has to be a five-pointer.
It should in fact be the week in which Kevin Putt’s men engage a new gear. They have got this far by winning close games through a combination of a well-organised defence and moments of individual brilliance. They have proved that if you can keep a game tight, exceptional players like Brent Russell can win it at the death.
Putt has used just 24 players in seven games this year, an amazing statistic given the normal attrition that South African teams endure. Among those 24 are players such as Adrian Jacobs and Russell Winter who were both signed as afterthoughts, unwanted by anyone else.
Part of the feel-good factor of the Sharks success this year has been the way the Putt has moulded the great, the good and the ordinary into a proper rugby team. This could be the start of something big.