There was an eerie sense of whistling in the dark about Comoran President Azali Assoumani’s remarks after casting his ballot in Moroni on Sunday. “We are in the last stage of the process of stabilising the Comoros,” he said before retiring to his residence on Grande Comoros to wait for the worst.
Three weeks ago elections for the national assemblies on the three autonomous islands of the archipelago left Assoumani’s party with only a smattering of the votes.
Sunday’s voting for the federal assembly left him hardly any better off. That assembly is designed to bring stability to an archipelago that has experienced two-dozen coups since being granted independence from France in 1975. At least four of these have been successful.
The ousting of South African-backed Bob Denard appeared to set the islands on course to normality, but in 1997 two of them — Anjouan and Moheli — seceded.
Two years later Assoumani seized power in a coup, which happened at the same time that Africans were red-carding extra-parlimentary changes of the government.
The new African Union (AU) took the Comoros case on board and brokered a complex federal system that saw Assoumani win a presidential election last year. That system also returned Abdou el Bak as president on Grande Comore, Mohamed Bacar on Anjouan and Said Fazul on Moheli.
Instead of enhancing stability, however, the presidents were soon locked in a power struggle. Assoumani clung tenaciously to the reins of power in what was supposed to be a loose federation with much authority devolving to the island governments.
The AU negotiating team, led by South African Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, realised it had put the cart before the horse. In negotiations on the islands and in Pretoria they pressed the president to expedite parliamentary elections. This amounted to asking the presidents to hasten the appointment of their own watchdogs.
The polling passed peacefully on Sunday despite a charged atmosphere. Youths patrolled the streets of Moroni, ostensibly to “stop Assoumani men from visiting the houses to buy votes”.
Assoumani’s supporters, in turn, stood guard over three polling stations in the capital that were ransacked during the voting last month. The federal election was for 18 of the 33 seats in the assembly. A further 15 members will be nominated (five each) by the island authorities. Assoumani would therefore need 12 seats to control the federal assembly.
Indications this week are he will be lucky to get five. Only two of the seats finally decided on Sunday went his way. The remaining eight went to supporters aligned to parties of the island presidents.
The last eight seats remain undecided, having failed to secure the required majority. Run-off elections will be held on Sunday.
The devolution process, say European diplomats based on the island, is too expensive and too complicated for the 250 000-strong electorate.
With fewer than 700 000 voters, the Comoros is getting an inordinate share of AU time and expense. Members of the regional negotiating group have been asked to make extra-budgetary contributions to keep the process going.