If you’d predicted before the season began that in week nine of the Super 12 the Bulls and Stormers would win in Brisbane and Auckland, while the Cats and Sharks would lose in Johannesburg and Durban, you would have been asked to fill in funny farm forms there and then.
But maybe Elvis really does work in a roadhouse in Benoni. What else can explain the astounding 51-23 win by the Stormers at Eden Park? Or the staggering Cats comeback from 33-6 down to 37-36 up against the Crusaders at Ellis Park? Or the Sharks implosion against a Chiefs side that had done what no other side has managed this season — losing to the Cats the previous week?
Only the Bulls defeat of the Reds failed to elicit astonishment, which is proof positive that something extraordinary was going on. Why else would it be deemed unremarkable for the Pretorian guard to win a game in Australia? It is, after all, only two years since the Bulls were the laughing stock of the Super 12, unable to win a game at all, let alone one on the other side of the world.
So, if the world has been turned upside down, what does the future hold? Oh yes, we’ve reached that stage of the season beloved of statisticians: three rounds to go before the semifinals and a logjam on the log, with only the Cats and Reds positively eliminated from the race.
Three New Zealand franchises are the least likely to progress, but the Highlanders and the Blues can each still reach a final tally of 32 points and the Hurricanes can make 33. There is then a four-point gap to the Bulls and Waratahs, both of whom have 22 points, one behind the Chiefs and three behind the Sharks and the Crusaders.
And, if you thought the Brumbies and Stormers were clear and qualified, in positions one and two on the log, think again. The Brumbies have 30 points, but they have only one home game left. Furthermore, their last three opponents are all potential qualifiers in the Waratahs, Hurricanes and Chiefs.
Not so long ago, that run-in would have been the envy of every other side, but the Waratahs got back on the bus last week, breaking a four-match losing streak, the Chiefs proved they were no flash in the pan against the Sharks, and the Hurricanes have that infuriating ability to beat anyone anywhere on any given day. It’s actually still possible that the Brumbies might not make the last four, although that’s not the way to bet.
As for the Stormers, the single biggest shock of the tournament has only made things harder for them. They are now expected to beat the Chiefs easily in Hamilton for all the usual reasons: the Chiefs will be jetlagged on their return from South Africa, they are actually not as good as their results suggest and the Stormers are on the highest of highs. A classic set-up, in fact.
It’s not being unpatriotic to suggest that this match is the Stormers’ final. Lose against the Chiefs and they’ll have to beat one of the Crusaders in Christchurch or the Sharks in Durban. Of course, on the basis of their performance against the Blues, they might easily win all their last three games, but once again, that’s not the way to bet.
So we come down to the fact that the Sharks are still the best-placed of the South African teams by a country mile, despite losing to the Chiefs last week. They finish against a poor Reds side, a depleted Blues and jetlagged Stormers, all in Durban.
If Henno Mentz’s final minute try had been awarded last week, and if Butch James had converted it, the Sharks would have had two more log points. That may yet come back to haunt them, but it is not unreasonable to suggest that the Sharks can earn 10 points from their final three matches, which would give them 35 log points.
That’s definitely in the last four, though no team has ever clinched a home semifinal with 35 points. This has been a bizarre season, however, and it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that it will be enough this time around, although it depends ultimately on a faltering finish from one or both of the Stormers and Brumbies.
And what of the Bulls? They finish against the Crusaders, Chiefs and Cats. The Crusaders will be short of breath after their narrow win against the Cats and another one of those debilitating journeys home. Every other side in contention will be hoping for a Bulls win just to even matters up. They seem too limited, but this has been an odd season.
Three wins out of three is probably out of the question, but 10 points from those games would give Rudy Joubert’s men a fighting chance of fourth place with 32 log points. Then it would be a case of hoping that the Stormers win the log to avoid a probably impossible duel with the Brumbies in Canberra.
History will probably make bunkum of most of the foregoing, but what’s sport without a little misguided speculation, anyway?