A leading climatologist has warned that the government should take a long-term view of changing climate conditions, or face potential consequences that could ”seriously compound” the existing challenges facing South Africa.
”We are still building society around what is considered to be normal climate, in for example water usage and infrastructure. But we increasingly need to take the changing characteristics of climate into consideration,” said professor Bruce Hewitson of the University of Cape Town’s environmental and geographical science department on Thursday.
Using tangible examples of the effects in the change in frequency and intensity when experiencing local climatic change, Hewitson said some parts of the interior were getting drier, while some parts such as the KwaZulu-Natal coastline were getting wetter.
”The apple crops in the Western Cape are under stress and potentially apple farming will no longer be viable in decades to come. Some farmers are already switching to olives, while malaria, which is largely controlled by the climate, is spreading in KwaZulu Natal,” he said.
Hewitson said that while the situation had not reached ”crisis” proportions yet, in order to adapt to the changing climate, the government needed to pay more attention and plan in advance.
”Government is aware of it, but needs to recognise this as a long term issue of seriousness,” he said.
Hewitson, who also serves on the United Nations-mandated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said: ”Climate change is as big a problem as anything you want to name.” He agreed that government needed to juggle this priority with other socio-economic issues such as housing, education and health.
He said many South African activities were currently working on the edge of viability because of variations in the climate.
”There is nothing we can do to prevent climate change in this or the next generation… but we need to investigate and understand the magnitude of the problem and government needs to listen.”
Hewitson said a big concern of developing nations was the lack of resources allocated for climate change research and adaptation policy, which meant that governments were loathe to take decisions without having the requisite research and knowledge.
Using electricity production as an example, Hewitson outlined the negative ”cascading effect” climate change could have on society.
”Look at Eskom and its power generation, which is dependant on water… If we have two or three years of drought, power generation could be cut back and we can imagine what southern Africa would be like… with rolling blackouts and other major consequences,” he said.
Hewitson said the problem of climate change, which could in some way be evidenced in the extreme weather conditions currently prevalent in South Africa, was something that affected everybody on the continent.
”Nepad (the New Partnership for Africa’s Development) should also seriously look at climate change, and what the effects of this could be on the sub-continent.”
Director general in the Department of Environmental Affairs, Dr Chippy Olver, said the government was looking at the potential and predicted climate changes at the ”highest level”.
”We have commissioned a very detailed response strategy… [which] was at an advanced stage of development… [and we] will be ready to submit this to Cabinet for final approval later this year,” Olver said.
He said the department had commissioned a series of impact studies on climate change in the country, looking at agriculture, biodiversity and water resources.
”We’ve modelled to very carefully predicted outcomes,” he said. – Sapa