Bill Clinton was tucked away in his country home last week putting the final touches to his memoirs. The book promises to be the publishing event of the year, with an initial print run of one-and-a-half million copies.
Most of America is eagerly awaiting publication of the story of one of its most successful and controversial Presidents. Yet John Kerry, fighting to be the next Democratic President, is dreading it.
The last thing his faltering campaign needs is Clinton to dominate the airwaves. The book will suck up publicity Kerry desperately needs to show himself capable of defeating George Bush.
”Kerry’s campaign is gasping for air already in lots of unhelpful ways. This can only add to it,” said Shaun Bowler, a political science professor at the University of California.
Democratic party planners were aghast at Clinton’s decision to publish in an election year. The original publishing date would have overshadowed the July Democratic Convention in Boston, so he moved it to next month.
Many Democrats, however, would rather Clinton stayed out of sight entirely. They fear that his massive charisma will show up Kerry’s charmless demeanour and failure to connect with voters. ”It will show that Democrats miss Clinton and many don’t think Kerry has measured up to him,” said Larry Haas, an aide in the Clinton White House.
The ”Clinton problem” strikes at the heart of what has gone wrong with Kerry’s campaign. Even as Bush has faced crisis after crisis, culminating in the storm over the abuse of Iraqi detainees, the candidate has failed to make any significant gains. He is lambasted as seeming wooden, in person and in his vital TV adverts.
Privately, many Democrats admit that Kerry, despite his heroism in Vietnam, is not inspiring. ”He is just a little dull. He might be one of those people who just don’t work well on TV,” said Bowler.
Last week Kerry’s campaign sought to promote his image as a hero by broadcasting adverts about his background, with soundbites from his family and a man whose life he saved in Vietnam.
But the adverts cannot quell the sniping from some Democrats. Donna Brazile, Al Gore’s campaign manager in 2000, criticised Kerry for not doing enough to woo black people and minorities. His campaign had ”failed to understand how to navigate one of the most important issues in American politics: race relations and diversity,” she wrote in Roll Call magazine.
This was damaging. Kerry’s team sees the danger of his being portrayed as a New England white elitist, and black women, such as Brazile, are the most loyal of Democrats. Some commentators have even called for Kerry to quit. Others see a Clinton-inspired plot for Kerry to lose so Hillary Clinton can run in 2008.
What is certain is that the Democrats look uncomfortable. ‘I have yet to meet a very enthusiastic Kerry backer among any Democratic insiders,’ Haas said. Some believe the party is mired in ‘buyer’s remorse’, picking the establishment man Kerry over outsiders such as southerner John Edwards and anti-war crusader Howard Dean.
Many see Kerry as hamstrung by his initial support for the Iraq war, which nullifies their main attack against an administration caught in a Middle East quagmire.
Paradoxically, the Democrats have rarely been more mobilised. Supporters raised a record of more than $50-million in the first quarter of this year, and Kerry, not Bush, now holds the record for the amount given in a single day. Experts say, however, that it is dislike of Bush, rather than love of Kerry, that has created this tide of activism.
Yet others urge caution. Polls show Kerry and Bush virtually neck and neck. The Bush campaign has also made a disastrous start and has often been knocked off balance by events.
In fact, Democrats may even be able to take solace from Clinton’s book. It will almost certainly mention that at this stage in 1992 he was in third place, far behind Bush’s father and independent candidate Ross Perot. For a disillusioned Democratic party, that may be comfort enough. – Guardian Unlimited Â