The favourite is an underperforming, uncharismatic US-trained economist.
Her main rival is a secondary-school drop-out who became a mega movie star and has no administrative experience.
This is the choice facing Filipinos, who began voting early this morning for a new president in elections that were immediately marred by violence. Two people died in a grenade attack in Manila, and another explosion in an eastern province gutted a building.
According to the latest polls, the incumbent, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, holds a six percentage-point lead over Fernando Poe Jr, the hero of 282 films.
But with 15% of the 43-million voters still undecided in the first past the post system, analysts say the result is not a foregone conclusion, though nobody is expecting the other three candidates — a former police chief with a tainted human rights reputation, a cancer-stricken senator and a televangelist — to cause a huge upset.
Despite having few obvious presidential qualifications, Poe is considered to have a chance because he is an outsider and is milking the disillusionment with national politics, which is dominated by only about 200 families.
This despair was encapsulated by Neal Cruz, a columnist in the popular Philippine Daily Inquirer.
”For president we will choose from among… a bumbling actor, a murderous cop, a very sick lawyer, a religious bigot and an incoherent midget,” he wrote.
Poe, known as Da King, saw his early popularity slump during the campaign, however, in which he has proved inarticulate and thin on concrete policies, and he has refused to give interviews.
Arroyo, in contrast, has reaped dividends from shak ing off her elitist image and adopting the populist tactics of her main rival — including hiring the scantily-clad Viva Hot Babes for campaign rallies to counter Poe’s Sex Bomb Dancers.
Corporate funding, experience and questionable use of state funding have elevated her to the cusp of victory.
One of her senior supporters, Senator Joker Arroyo, who is no relation, said Filipinos were seeing through Poe’s ”superficial exterior”.
”There’s nothing substantial underneath,” he said.
”He just doesn’t have the intellectual capacity to lead this country and, thankfully, people are now realising that. They can still remember what happened last time we elected an actor as president.”
In the last election, in 1998, Joseph Estrada, another school drop-out turned actor, romped to victory.
However, his populist policies did little for the country and he was impeached on corruption allegations.
The trial collapsed as it was about to conclude, which prompted mass street protests — dubbed People Power II after the demonstrations that ousted the former dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.
The protests, combined with the military deserting him, forced Estrada to resign and he was replaced by Arroyo.
Poe draws most of his support from the poor, who comprise 41% of the population. Contrary to popular expectations, they are not merely seduced by his screen image, according to a study by the respected Philippine Centre for Investigative Journalism.
The five candidates concluded the 90-day campaign yesterday with their only joint appearance – a mass to pray for a smooth election. Most Filipinos are devoutly Roman Catholic.
They heard the Archbishop of Manila, Gaudencio Rosales, implore them to initiate the turning over of a new leaf in the country’s politics.
”Our recent history reminds us of the tragic mistakes committed and the crises imposed on us by errors in the past,” he said in his sermon.
”Martial law — and the disvalues it had created. Half a dozen coup attempts. Low-level campaigns. Group interest politics. Dirty elections and rampant practice of graft and corruption.”
Unofficial returns are expected in a few days, but with a long history of electoral fraud that many analysts are predicting will be repeated at these polls, the official results are expected to take weeks to finalise. – Guardian Unlimited Â