Describing the past financial year as one of the “most successful” in the group’s history, South African banking group Absa reported a 29,2% leap in headline earnings for the 12 months ended in March.
Headline earnings burgeoned from R3,44-billion to R4,45-billion, translating into headline earnings per share of 688,5 cents — an increase of 30,4% over the previous earnings of 528,1 cents per share.
The figure exceeded the I-Net Bridge consensus forecast, which was earnings of 663 cents per share.
However, the strong performance was not entirely unexpected. The banking group — one of South Africa’s so-called “big four” and regarded as the biggest retail bank — had indicated that its earnings would be good, principally on the back of substantial positive revaluations via the income statement as a result of the new accounting standard AC133, which it was applying for the first time.
The group noted on Monday that its return on shareholders’ funds has been lifted to an all-time high of 24,6%, well in excess of the group’s cost of equity of 16,6% over this period.
The performance was bolstered by an environment marked by reductions in interest rates since April 1 2003, but the group cautioned on Monday that the change in accounting practice introduced by AC133 is likely to lead to increased earnings volatility in periods characterised by substantial changes in interest rates and equity markets.
If the effects of AC133 were stripped out of the equation, the growth in headline earnings for the year would have amounted to 20,7% only. The reduction in interest rates and the moderate recovery of domestic equity markets during the reporting period had a positive impact of R292-million on the results for the year.
A final dividend of 110 cents per share was declared, bringing the growth in dividends for the year to 25,5%. This translates into a dividend cover of three times and a total dividend for the year of 182 cents per share compared with 145 cents previously.
“The most notable performance came from personal and commercial market banking, which flourished in an environment characterised by lower inflation and a decline in the prime interest rate. The wholesale market continued to be challenging,” Absa commented.
Satisfactory advances growth of 11,6% and sound interest-rate management strategies enabled the group to post double-digit growth in net interest income despite a sharply declining interest-rate cycle that brought the prime interest rate to its lowest level in more than two decades. The group’s net interest margin declined marginally from 3,45% to 3,4%, largely as a result of the endowment effect on capital and retail deposits.
A combination of leading-edge credit scoring practices, a centralised approach to credit and the prevailing low interest rates resulted in a notable improvement in the quality of the advances book. As a result of this improvement, the charge for impairment of advances declined marginally compared with the previous year, despite the losses suffered by operations in Singapore.
“It is pleasing to note that the ratio of impairments to average advances declined to 0,9% [March 2003: 1,02%]. Non-interest income grew by 17,8% and enhanced the ratio of non-interest income to total income to 52,5% — in line with the group”s target of sustaining non-interest income at greater than 50%.
“Annuity income grew encouragingly, notably electronic banking revenue, transaction fees and commissions. This category of income constitutes 62,4% of non-interest income. Insurance-related income increased by 36,1%, which is attributable to excellent growth in short-term insurance underwriting and net life surpluses. The impact of fair value accounting contributed to exceptional growth in investment income, amounting to 124,6%,” it said.
Stringent cost management in the group yielded good results in the past year. Costs increased by 8,3% and the cost-to-income ratio improved to 57,1%.
The number of staff employed by the group declined by 698 to 31 658 — mostly through natural attrition.
“Although above-inflation salary increases were granted and incentive compensation showed a marked increase over the period, staff costs increased by an acceptable 6,9%.”
The headline earnings contribution from African operations outside South Africa was satisfactory although the performance of Banco Austral (Mozambique), in particular, was not as solid as that of the previous year. National Bank of Commerce (Tanzania) and Bank Windhoek (Namibia) continued to achieve solid results and no income was recognised in respect of the group’s investment in the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe.
Looking ahead, the group said that with monetary policy focus remaining firmly fixed on maintaining inflation at between 3% and 6%, the Reserve Bank is likely to focus sharply on any factors that might jeopardise this target. Spiralling international oil prices and rising wage costs are issues of particular concern in this regard, it said.
“Base effects and the restoration of suppliers’ pricing power are expected to lead to moderate price pressures later in 2004. Pre-emptive monetary policy tightening is expected by the fourth quarter of 2004.
“Credit growth in the major consumer categories is nevertheless expected to be in excess of inflation. The household debt-to-disposable-income ratio has shown some improvement in the final quarter of 2003 and this bodes well for lending activities by financial institutions. The expected higher interest rates could have a moderating influence on both credit extension and household consumption expenditure growth.
“Given the quality of the advances book, the possible increase in interest rates is not expected to have a notable effect on credit impairments. At the same time, a lower inflation environment will dampen fee and service price increases.
“In this environment, barring any major negative shocks to the local and global economies and local equity markets, the group expects to continue to deliver real headline earnings growth,” Absa added. — I-Net Bridge