The elections in Afghanistan seem certain to be delayed for a second time, dealing a damaging blow to United States President George Bush’s own election campaign.
The delay comes amid growing concern about the security of the election process after the killing on Thursday of 11 Chinese construction workers.
It is now impossible for the election to be held legally in September, the date for which both the interim government of President Hamid Karzai and the United Nations were aiming, itself a delay from the intended June polling day. It is understood that the new date is likely to be around October 5.
It has also emerged that not a single dollar pledged to pay for the elections has been given by donor countries, including members of the European Union and the US.
Even if the $70-million pledged is given, there is still a shortfall in paying for the $101-million costs of a proper election, an indication of how far the international community’s attention has shifted away from Afghanistan since the official end of the hostilities. The lack of money is hampering registration.
Under Afghanistan’s electoral process, 120 days have to elapse between the certification of the constituencies and polling day.
That work was only completed last week, which rules out the September date still being promoted by the authorities. According to Reg Austin, the chief technical adviser to the UN’s joint electoral management body, the earliest possible date is early October.
”We are not in September any more,” he said. ”The law is quite clear and that takes us inexorably into October.”
Even this date is by no means certain. If the security situation worsens or the registration process stalls because of violence and intimidation in the southern and south-eastern areas, a decision could be made to postpone the vote until next spring, although Karzai is strongly committed to a vote this year. There are concerns within the international community that not enough time has been given for the electoral process.
”Given Afghanistan’s history and the international community’s responsibility in that history, it should allow the Afghan people sufficient time to prepare themselves for the election, if it is to have any credibility,” said Barbara Stapleton of the Agency Coordinating Body for Afghanistan Relief. ”If the elections are held before the country is prepared, it may well lock Afghanistan’s politics into a very dangerous course.”
On some levels the registration drive has been going well, said a UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan spokesperson. An estimated 3,4-million people have now registered, about a third of the desired total of 9,5-million, and women have registered in far higher numbers than expected, with at least a million enrolled.
In some provinces, including ones such as Herat regarded as conservative, women are accounting for almost half the registered voters.
Karzai is currently in the US, where he has been meeting with Bush. The US president is anxious that Afghanistan should go to the polls before his own date with the electorate in November so that, with the condition in Iraq deteriorating, he can point to at least one foreign democratisation process.
The role of the US government is regarded as a major factor. While it would be damaging to Bush if Afghanistan were not at the polls before his own date with the electorate, it might be even more harmful if the election took place and was a shambles with some provinces barely participating. — Guardian Unlimited Â