Republican strategists expect George Bush to be trailing in the polls by at least 15 per cent by next month following the announcement of John Edwards as running mate of Democrat challenger John Kerry. The Democrats are also expected to win a large polls ‘bounce’ from their Boston convention at the end of July.
Matthew Dowd, Bush’s chief strategist, last week sent an internal memo seen by The Observer to campaign advisers, warning: ‘John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favour by early August.’
There is widespread Republican concern that the young, charismatic Edwards, with his Clintonesque southern twang, has revitalised a Kerry campaign that Bush supporters had derided as wooden and out of touch. But the Republicans expect to hack away Kerry’s projected lead with their own polls bounce after their convention in New York at the end of August.
One poll put Kerry up by 9 per cent against Bush, but others still have the candidates neck and neck, and an Associated Press poll released on Friday had Bush in the lead. ‘This is not a big bounce electorate. We are a nation that is split down the middle, polarised and hardened,’ said pollster John Zogby, chairman of Zogby International.
Edwards faced an immediate media assault by a well-oiled Republican attack machine. A TV advert featuring Republican senator John McCain, whom Kerry had earlier courted as a possible vice-presidential choice, showed pictures of McCain campaigning for Bush. The message was simple: Edwards was Kerry’s second choice – and his first choice is going for Bush.
Edwards also drew criticism from the American Chamber of Commerce, which said it would campaign against him because of his stance on free trade issues.
Republicans have identified key issues where they believe Edwards is vulnerable and plan to launch a co-ordinated campaign to knock down his positive image with voters. But each area of Edwards’s weakness also contains problems for an aggressive Republican strategy. First, Republicans aim to highlight his lucrative career as a trial lawyer. Radio talkshow host Rush Limbaugh has already labelled Edwards an ‘ambulance chaser’, seeking unjustifiably large payouts against American businesses. But Democrats contend that Edwards has spent much of his time defending patients who have suffered serious injuries through medical malpractice. Many of his clients were children. Polls have shown that the majority of Americans view his legal career in a positive way.
Republicans also claim Edwards is too young and inexperienced, having only served one term in the US Senate. When Bush was asked last week to describe the difference between Edwards and Vice President Dick Cheney, Bush snapped at a reporter: ‘Dick Cheney can be president. Next.’ Democrats contend that Bush himself had little experience when he campaigned to become President in 2000.
Kerry and Edwards spent last week on a prolonged tour of key battleground states including West Virginia in the south, New Mexico in the south west and Ohio in the Midwest, which is seen as perhaps the most vital state in the entire election.
Democrat sources have described an intense and secretive polling process among possible candidates as the key to why Edwards was eventually picked, despite rumours of a testy personal relationship with Kerry. Edwards consistently polled better than rivals, sources said. That would match Edwards’s performance in the Democrat primaries where he was successful in attracting large numbers of independent voters.
Edwards, who hails from North Carolina, will also force the Republicans to campaign in areas of the south which previously they would have assumed they would win. His appointment has ratcheted up the pressure on Republicans, who have already run a noticeably more negative campaign than Kerry. – Guardian Unlimited Â