Whether George W Bush or John Kerry wins the election on Tuesday, the next president of the United States faces an overflowing in-tray of international problems. These are some of the issues:
Anti-Americanism
The Bush presidency has brought a surge in anti-American sentiment, notably in the Arab, Muslim and European spheres. For the first time, the US is seen by majorities in many countries as a potential enemy rather than a friend.
Such conclusions are borne out by a clutch of international opinion surveys and by an official worldwide study undertaken last year by a former US ambassador, Edward Djerejian. He found the US was losing the battle for hearts and minds. Since then, the Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib abuse scandals have further damaged the US’s standing abroad.
Terrorism
While the next president will be under pressure to win the ”war on terror”, it remains unclear who or where the enemy is — or how it can be defeated.
Despite the elimination of some leading al-Qaeda figures, Osama bin Laden remains at large. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda’s cause has devolved to loose-knit, copycat groups in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Chechnya and Pakistan. The Iraq insurgency has proved both magnet and recruiting sergeant for Islamist extremists. A report this month by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London estimated that al-Qaeda can draw on 18 000 operatives in 60 countries.
The ”war on terror” has been used by states such as Israel, Russia and China to justify harsher treatment of nationalists and separatists. And it has led to divisive erosion of civil liberties abroad and in the US.
Proliferation
While the next president’s focus will be on Iran and North Korea, a bigger fear is that non-state actors such as al-Qaeda will obtain weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
North Korea already claims to have nuclear weapons. Syria is another concern, as is a region-wide Middle East WMD arms race should Iran obtain the bomb. Unsecured WMD-related stockpiles in the former Soviet Union are also a big worry.
Conflict zones
The US urgently needs more international military and United Nations civilian support in Iraq.
Overall, meeting the US’s myriad global military commitments is becoming increasingly expensive and problematic in terms of personnel; hence the speculation about a post-election draft.
Israel-Palestine and Iraq apart, the Middle East as a whole remains a critical national security concern for any US president, given the US’s chronic dependence on oil.
Old rivals
Bilateral trade is booming. But China remains an undemocratic communist state with a poor human rights record. Yet the US needs China’s good offices if, for example, the North Korean stand-off is to be ended.
Russia is another potential problem, despite relatively greater stability under President Vladimir Putin. Moscow’s reaction to the Beslan school tragedy has revived questions about Putin’s authoritarianism.
Like China, Russia is developing new long-range missiles in response to Bush’s ”son of Star Wars” ballistic missile defence project, prompting fears of a new arms race.
Multilateralism
Trade and other disputes with the European Union will certainly figure on the next president’s agenda.
More fundamentally challenging is the EU’s gradual emergence as a global political player. Its development of a collective military capability, potentially undermining Nato, is a gauntlet that the White House may be obliged to pick up. This in turn relates to knotty questions about the legitimacy of intervention and ”just war” concepts. Radically different European attitudes to the UN and upholding international law through institutions such as the World Court are key areas of contention
For the next president, perhaps the most difficult challenge will be to decide if and when the US goes it alone. If Bush has proved anything, it is that even the US cannot do it all. — Â