The re-elected Bush administration will continue to view China as a strategic threat in its second term, but is unlikely to make any rash moves with so much at stake, analysts said.
There are not expected to be any dramatic shifts in Bush’s current policy towards China in the short-term, although the Republicans’ view of Beijing as a rising power means more conflicts may arise further down the road.
”The Bush people have a bit of a Cold War mentality and think that whatever the political regime is in China it will be always a potential threat,” said Ding Yifan, deputy director of the Institute of World Development, a thinktank under the State
Council.
”They think it is necessary to try to contain China, so that the Chinese power does not rise quickly to defy the United States or others one day.”
But the fact that the Bush administration needs China’s cooperation in a range of issues, particularly in its ”war on terror”, means it is unlikely to risk upsetting Beijing unnecessarily.
”The Bush administration is going to need China more because China is a very realistic great power,” said Paul Harris, an expert on China-US relations at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University.
The dependency is mutual.
The United States is China’s largest export market and is the country’s third largest trading partner.
”Much as the US has to deal with China, China has to deal with the US, they are stuck with each other,” Harris said.
During the election campaign, both Bush and rival John Kerry conveniently avoided public debate on Taiwan — the key concern of China.
Analysts said although the Republican party is relatively tough on rhetoric on the Taiwan issue, the Bush administration is pragmatic enough to know it has to avoid taking it too far and souring relations.
Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States would come to Taiwan’s defence should it be attacked by China — a pledge that is mentioned in the Republican party manifesto but absent in the Democratic platform.
”China is quite pleased that Bush was willing to exert pressure on Taiwan, and not allow it to move too far on independence,” added Joseph Cheng, a China expert at City University of Hong Kong.
”There is a certain appreciation of the Bush administration that it has a very pragmatic attitude,” Cheng said.
But Bush will have to cope with mounting domestic pressure to confront China over trade terms and currency issues in what many Americans regard as an unlevel playing field.
Bush’s non-confrontational front towards China on these issues have been attacked at home as Americans blame China for job losses and the huge trade gap.
American critics maintain that China is unfairly advantaged by the decade-old currency peg fixed at around 8,28 yuan to the dollar, saying that Chinese imports are effectively subsidised by as much as 40%.
”I don’t think [Bush] cares one way or the other, he probably believes in free trade even at the expense of textile jobs in the United States,” said Harris.
”Of course some congressional pressure may have more staying power, in that respect, I think there will continue to be a challenge against the Chinese.”
In the long-run, scholars said the Republicans’ realist political outlook and its continuous suspicion of China means Sino-US relations will never be totally warm.
”There is a concern that the United States sees China as a potential competitor, that they no longer accept China as a strategic partner,” said Cheng.
”These discrepancies in value means there is a limit to cooperation between the two countries,” he said.
Shi Yinhong, director of the Centre for American Studies at the People’s University in Beijing, said a Democratic government would have fostered smoother ties with its liberalist preference for engagement and multilateralism.
”Plus the fact that the Democrats’ advisers have a more balanced view of China, they are more knowledgeable about China,” Yin said.
”I personally think, under the Democrats, there might have been more constructive development between China and America than now.” – Sapa-AFP