Palestinians are well-prepared for the death of Yasser Arafat. Through television reports of foreigners paying homage at Arafat’s battered compound and prison, Palestinians have watched their 75-year-old leader degenerate into a feeble, shaking and often incoherent shadow over the past two years.
Many Palestinians are also ready for his passing on another level. ”The Palestinian people are ready both emotionally and practically,” said Qadura Fares, a Palestinian MP and senior member of Arafat’s Fatah movement.
But Arafat has done little to prepare the system he dominates for his demise. He wields unchallenged authority over every major institution — the Palestinian Authority, the Palestine Liberation Organisation and an array of armed forces — through a system of loyalty, patronage and fear. He entrenched his control by assuring that no potential rivals grew strong enough to challenge his authority, and no single figure is likely to emerge to replace him in those roles.
Any battle to succeed Arafat would be fought initially among the older generation of Palestinian politicians and fighters who spent most of their lives in exile with the president.
But the real battle will be within a younger, homegrown generation of politicians who were brought up and raised in the West Bank and Gaza.
Arafat’s likeliest successors are Mahmoud Abbas, better known as Abu Mazen, and Ahmed Qureia, known as Abu Ala.
The new generation, leaders such as Jibril Rajoub and Mohammed Dahlan, may make way for the two Abus this time round, with Mazen possibly taking charge of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and Ala as president of the Palestinian Authority. But Rajoub and Dahlan will be preparing their future bids, as they have been for the past few years.
Marwan Barghouti — another, more popular, member of that generation and the most likely long-term successor — is still in jail in Israel.
Mahmoud Abbas: A strong contender to become leader of the PLO, the 69-year-old would be the United States and Israeli choice, regarded by them as likely to crack down on groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
He returned to the West Bank last year to become prime minister but was too weak to stand up to Arafat or wring concessions out of the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon. After four months, he resigned.
Ahmed Qureia: The 66-year-old is a reluctant prime minister, frequently on the verge of handing in his resignation because of interference by Arafat. Like Abu Mazen, he is regarded by the Israeli government as someone that it could do business with. He was one of the architects of the Oslo peace process. Lacking charisma, he has little support at the popular level.
Marwan Barghouti: The 45-year-old is the best known of the new generation of homegrown Palestinian leaders. Unlike Abu Mazen and Abu Ala, he was brought up and spent most of his life in the West Bank. He demonstrated his leadership qualities during the first Palestinian uprising of 1987 to 1993 and is one of the main leaders of the second intifada that began in September 2000. He opposed suicide bombings and other attacks inside Israel and advocated confining Palestinian attacks to the West Bank and Gaza.
He was captured by the Israelis in 2002 and is currently serving long jail sentences after he was subsequently found guilty of multiple murders.
The Israeli government will determine his fate. If the politicians believe that Barghouti is prepared to reach a deal with Israel, they could release him early. If they decide he will cause more trouble, he will remain in prison.
Mohammed Dahlan: Where Barghouti’s power base is in the West Bank, Dahlan (43) seeks control of Gaza.
Arrested six times by the Israelis, he was deported to Tunis, returning in 1993. He was in charge of the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatus in Gaza until he fell out of favour with Arafat, who saw his reform proposals as an act of betrayal.
He is a polished political performer who is liked by the US, Israeli and British governments. He has made many enemies among fellow Palestinians, especially on the West Bank.
Dahlan has continued to build support in Gaza, where the Palestinian Authority has to contend for power with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Jibril Rajoub: Aged 51, he is almost a mirror image of Dahlan on the West Bank. He was in charge of security in the area until he, too, fell out of favour. He was deemed by Arafat to have failed to put up enough of a fight against the Israeli incursion in 2002. He is now back in favour.
Rajoub, like Dahlan, is still in close contact with counterparts in Israeli intelligence.
Rajoub spent 17 years in Israeli jails. He also went to Tunis with Arafat. He is apparently opposed to attacks on civilians, either in Israel or on Jewish settlers in the West Bank and Gaza. – Â